North America will become energy independent by 2030, by which time it will have started to export natural gas, BP chief economist Christof Ruehl said Monday.
Over the period to 2030, increasing crude exports from the Middle East are far from assured, he told the Middle East Petroleum and Gas conference in Manama.
"The ground is shifting and there is probably a period of great uncertainty facing us over the next 20 years," Ruehl said.
As opposed to the North American continent in general -- consisting of Canada, the US and Mexico -- the US will continue to import crude, albeit at a declining rate, while exporting gas and coal, he predicted.
But by 2030, global crude oil exports will be dominated by just two regions: the Middle East, which by then will be sending 90% of its exports to China and India; and the former Soviet Union, which will mainly supply Europe.
However, increasing crude supplies from the Middle East are uncertain due to prospects for local oil consumption to continue rising.
"The preconditions (for rising exports) are difficult, so there is substantial risk," Ruehl said. "In order to pencil in continuous export growth, we need to assume that energy intensity stops rising and starts to improve after 2020."
Realizing the estimated 1% annual decline in energy consumption relative to GDP that would be required for Middle East crude exports to continue rising will be a "tall order," Ruehl predicted.
Furthermore, the region will also need to shift a significant amount of its power generation from oil to gas fuel, he said, pointing out that oil's combined share of total fuel used by the Middle East's power and industrial sectors had more than doubled to 48% in 2010 from 21% in 1970.
Oil-fired power generation had fallen to 33% in 2010 from 41% of total regional electricity output in 1990, but needs to drop to 20% by 2030 if regional oil exports are to increase, as much as most analysts forecast, Ruehl said.
The consensus projection is for Middle East exports to supply 25% of oil consumption outside the region by 2030, up from 22% currently, he said.
