According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of November 30, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining and hydrogenation naphtha mainstream was 7,527.25 RMB/ ton, down 6.91% from 8,086.33 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month, and the local refining and hydrogenation naphtha fell sharply in the last ten days.
According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, as of November 30, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7,164.00 RMB/ ton, down 9.53% from 7,918.67 RMB/ ton at the beginning of this month, and the local straight run naphtha fell sharply in the last ten days.
On November 30, the naphtha commodity index was 92.90, down 0.86 points from yesterday, down 23.63% from the cycle's highest point of 121.64 (2022-03-10), and up 119.93% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)
Product: In November, the price of locally refined naphtha rose sharply in the first ten days and fell sharply in the second ten days. At present, the mainstream price of locally refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 7,300-7,500 RMB/ ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 7,100-7,300 RMB/ ton. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the demand for terminal ethylene cracking is weak, and the naphtha market has a strong wait-and-see mood. The purchase is mainly just needed. In the late ten days, the logistics in many places across the country is blocked, and the refinery reduces the price for shipment. As of the week ended November 23, Singapore's fuel oil inventory fell 1.44 million barrels to a three week low of 19.728 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate oil stocks fell by 188,000 barrels to a more than seven month low of 12.978 million barrels. Singapore's medium distillate oil inventory rose 490,000 barrels to a six week high of 7.388 million barrels.
Upstream: In November, the trend of international crude oil prices was volatile and downward. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over and was not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices.
Downstream: Toluene rebounded after falling in the first half of November, and fell continuously in the second half of the month. The decline widened at the end of the month. The price of toluene was 7,480 RMB/ ton on November 1 and 6,960 RMB/ ton on November 28, down 6.95% from the beginning of the month. In November, the overall trend of mixed xylene fell, the price rebounded slightly in the middle of the month, and the decline widened in the last ten days. On November 1, the price of mixed xylene was 8,180 RMB/ ton, and on November 28, it was 7,540 RMB/ ton, down 7.82% from the beginning of the month. In November, the price of paraxylene declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8,300 RMB/ ton, down 3.49% from the price of 8,600 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month.
According to the energy analysts of SunSirs, the international crude oil price fluctuated and declined in November, the cost support of naphtha was limited, the terminal ethylene and reforming were not significantly beneficial, and the procurement was mainly based on demand. The logistics in many places across the country was blocked, the refineries were active in shipping, the merchants were in a strong wait-and-see mood, and the transaction was cautious. It is expected that China local refining naphtha will continue to decline in the near future.
