According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the cement market in East China rose in November, with the price of 407.00 RMB/ ton, and the current price fell by 38.95% year on year.
In November, cement prices in some parts of East China fluctuated and consolidated. It can be seen from the above figure that the cement market has risen in the past three months, and the market has continued to rise this month. From January to October 2022, the cement output will be 1,758.89 million tons, down 11.3% year on year. The cement output in October will be 203.84 million tons, up 0.4% year on year and down 2.3% month on month. The demand was worse than last year, the contradiction of overcapacity was intensified, the cement market was not strong enough, and the market was mainly volatile and consolidated.
In November 2022, the coke market experienced three rounds of ups and downs and one round of ups and downs. As of the date of publication, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2,400 RMB/ ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2,600 RMB/ ton, with a monthly drop of 7.69%. Since November, the steel price has always been weak and downward. The profits of steel mills have fluctuated near the profit and loss line for a long time, so the operating rate is at a low level as a whole. Under the influence of profits, the coke procurement has slowed down, the maintenance of blast furnaces has increased, and the demand for coke has declined. The lack of demand to support coke prices has dropped for three consecutive rounds, with a cumulative decrease of 300-330 RMB/ ton. As the coke market has dropped for three consecutive rounds, the price of coking coal is higher than the price of coke again. The cost pressure of coking enterprises has increased, and the profits have been damaged. The coking enterprises have launched an increase in order to relieve the cost pressure of enterprises. On November 25, with the expectation of winter storage demand from downstream steel plants, the game between coke and steel was broken, and the first round of increase came to fruition, up 100-110 RMB/ ton. In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain is in a seasonal off-season as a whole. SunSirs expects the coke market to be bullish in the short term, but there is limited room for growth. The future market will focus on the price trend of coking coal and the coke inventory in all links.
Downstream funding problems remain, and demand recovery is poor. Specifically, the real estate investment margin has weakened again, and it is still bottoming out in the short term, with weak support for the cement market.
According to the prediction of SunSirs, the overall performance of the cement market is relatively flat at present, and multiple adverse factors restrain the price rise. Although there is support from the rise of raw materials, the rising power is still insufficient. Therefore, SunSirs analysts believe that China cement market is dominated by a small rise in a short time.
