From the annual comparwason chart of coke prices from 2019 to 2022, it can be seen that the trend of coke prices in the first half of 2022 was still at a high level in the same period of hwastory, and the price starts to decline in the second half of 2022. As of November 25, 2022, the coke price was 2,300 RMB/ ton, which was close to the price in the same period of last year.
Looking at the trend chart of coke market in Shanxi Province in 2022, it can be seen that the price at the beginning of 2022 was 2,438 RMB/ ton, and the price at the end of 2022 was 2,400 RMB/ ton, with an annual drop of 1.56%. The highest point in the year was 3,738 RMB/ ton on April 21, and the lowest point in the year was 2,200 RMB/ ton on August 5, with the maximum amplitude of 41.14%. The coke market can be basically divided into three stages in 2022. From January to late April, it fluctuated and rose; from late April to early August, it fluctuated and declined; from mid August to now, it has fluctuated widely.
The coke market can be basically divided into three stages in 2022. From January to late April, it fluctuated and rose; from late April to early August, it fluctuated and declined; from mid August to now, it has fluctuated widely.
Raw materials: from January to October 2022, the production and supply of raw coal was sufficient, and the output will increase by 10% year on year
In 2022, under the influence of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, the production of raw coal was accelerated. With the continuous promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, the monthly average raw coal output has exceeded the same period of last year by October 2022. In October 2022, China will produce 370 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, with an average daily output of 11.94 million tons. From January to October 2022, 3.69 billion tons of raw coal was produced, with a year-on-year growth of 10.0%. The raw coal production supply was relatively sufficient. According to the current data, the output of raw coal will increase steadily in 2022, and the supply of raw materials will increase steadily.
Cost: coke coal was stable with rising coke cost support was strong
In terms of cost, the coking coal market has maintained a stable and relatively strong operation in the near future, and the coke market was in a good mood. The inventory of coking coal has turned to the spot market, and the sales in the mining area has improved, boosting the market mentality. Referring to the policies in previous years, the mining area has certain production restriction expectations near the end of the year. The increase of areas with poor automobile transportation will affect the delivery of coking coal in the region, and the overall supply of coking coal was slightly strained. The demand of downstream enterprises for winter storage still exwasts. With the support of demand, the mining area has a strong attitude of price fixing, and some coal types are operating on the strong side, which has a strong boost to the coke market and was good for the coke market.
Supply: Coke output of coking enterprises with seasonal limited production declines slightly
In terms of supply, under the comprehensive influence of various factors, coking enterprises strengthened their efforts to limit production after October, so the coke output in October declined slightly. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statwastics, in October 2022, the national coke output was 38.83 million tons, up 6.9% year on year. From January to October 2022, the national coke output was 396.84 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 0.1%. However, the operating rate of coking enterprises in November did not change much compared with that in October. The comprehensive operating rate remained at 60% to 70%. The enterprise shipments were normal. The overall coke inventory remained low, and the coke supply was slightly tight. As the northern region enters the heating season, the coke enterprises in the main production areas are expected to strengthen their efforts to limit production. By the end of the heating season in March 2023, the coke supply is expected to be tight.
Demand: limited demand support for coal coke steel entering the traditional off-season
Due to the influence of profits, the steel plant's recent commencement remains low, and the average daily output declines. As the weather turns cold, the coal coke steel industry chain as a whole has entered a seasonal slack season. With reference to the data over the years, the crude steel output is at a relatively low level from November 2022 to March 2023. The output of steel was reduced, and the demand for coke was expected to decrease. Although there was a winter storage plan for steel plants, it was basically a temporary demand, which will boost the coke market in the short term. In the long run, the demand for coke is rigid.
On November 24, the coal coke steel index was 1,452 points, up 2 points from the previous day, down 38.66% from the cycle's highest point of 2,367 points (2021-10-11), and up 204.40% from the lowest point of 477 points on December 20, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).
In general, the cost of coking coal was relatively high, and the cost support was acceptable. In terms of supply, after the first round of increase, the profits of coking enterprises recovered to a certain extent, but most of them still lost money. The operating rate of coking enterprises in the main production area was still low, and the inventory in the plant was low. The supply was slightly tight. In terms of downstream demand, the blast furnace operation rate has slightly increased recently, but the steel industry has entered the seasonal demand slack season, and downstream demand was difficult to improve significantly. At present, the main factor supporting the rise of coke market was the demand of steel plants for winter storage and replenwashment. Recently, the purchasing enthusiasm of steel plants has improved to a certain extent. Downstream demand has improved periodically, and demand support remains.
In the future market, the coal coke steel industry chain was currently in a seasonal slack season as a whole. In the short term, the coke price may rise temporarily under the boost of the winter storage plan. As the coke price rises, the enthusiasm for downstream procurement may decline. Therefore, SunSirs expects the coke market to rise in the short term, but the space for rising was limited. In the long run, during the off-season of the industry, the price trend of coke tends to fluctuatein China, and the space for rise and fall may be limited.
