The BR market continued to rise slightly last week (11.11-11.18). According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 18, the price of BR in China was 11,420 RMB/ ton, up 0.18% from the 11,400 RMB/ ton on Friday. Last week, except for the reduction of 100 RMB/ ton by PetroChina Northeast Sales Company, the factory price of two barrels of oil was basically stable. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the factory price of Sinopec North China Sales Company reported 11,100 RMB/ ton as of November 18. Although the downstream commencement continued to decline, with the price of BR reaching a new low, the downstream inquiries increased, and the business offer was slightly adjusted. As of the 18th, the market offer of BR Rubber was 11,200-11,750 RMB/ ton, while the private BR mainstream offer was 10,700-11,300 RMB/ ton.
On the one hand, recently Haopu 60,000 t/a and Lande 30,000 t/a BR plants have been shut down for maintenance, and the production of Zhejiang Petrochemical 100,000 t/a BR plants has been postponed to next year; On the other hand, Haopu plant is planned to restart at the end of this month, Zhejiang Chuanhua's 50,000 t/a new plant will be started at the beginning of this month, and Shandong Yihua's 100,000 t/a BR plant will normally produce products in November after trial production at the end of October. In general, the pressure on the supply side of BR is still there.
Last week (11.11-11.18), the market price of raw butadiene rose, while the cost of BR rose slightly. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 18, the price of butadiene was 6,837 RMB/ ton, up 3.55% from 6,603 RMB/ ton of the previous Friday.
The natural rubber market rose slightly last week (11.4-11.17), which has weak support for BR. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of November 17, the price of natural rubber was 12,030 RMB/ ton, up 1.95% from 11,800 RMB/ ton of the previous Friday.
The demand side is still weak. In November, the construction of downstream tire enterprises remained low, and the demand side is weak in the support of BR. According to SunSirs, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is about 60%, and that of full steel tires is about 50%.
Future market forecast: according to the analysts of SunSirs, the supply pressure of BR is still at present, the demand support is insufficient, but the cost is on the rise. It is expected that the narrow consolidation of BR will be dominant in China in the short term.
