Price trend
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, since November, the domestic PTA spot market has experienced strong fluctuations. As of November 14, the average price in the East China market was 5,809 RMB/ton, up 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 16.71% year on year.
Analysis review
It is mainly driven by the contraction of the supply side and the upward shift of the cost side. Specifically:
In terms of PTA supply, recently, with the reduction of 80% to 90% in some plants in South China and the maintenance of 350,000 tons of small chemical fiber lines in Yizheng, the operating rate of PTA devices continued to shrink, and the current operating rate of the industry has fallen back to around 75%. The overall market supply showed a tightening trend, with less spot in circulation and there were not many stocks available for traders to sell
The crude oil price showed volatility at high level. In November, OPEC+ started to reduce production, and the crude oil supply was expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day. In addition, the demand for refined oil was still good. In the fourth quarter, with the refinery operating rate at a high level, the crude oil will have strong demand support. As of November 11, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.99 dollars/barrel.
However, the demand side is still the key factor restricting the PTA price. Downstream polyester enterprises have accelerated production reduction. At the same time, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing have rapidly shrunk. By the 14th, the comprehensive operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang had dropped to below 60%. Some factories had a holiday in advance, and downstream costs were weak to keep up. Terminal orders were scarce, and the market was generally pessimistic.
Market outlook
Analysts from SunSirs believe that the supply and demand structure of crude oil is still good, the oil price oscillation is strong, the supply of PX is still tight, and the cost support function is apparent. However, PTA unit maintenance will restart and new production capacity is expected to be put into production, so supply may increase. At the same time, it is said that some end weaving enterprises have prepared to start annual leave in advance, and the terminal demand is weak. The weak supply and demand of PTA is a drag on prices. Therefore, PTA will focus on weak shock adjustment in the short term. In the future, it’s still needed to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the production progress of new units.
