Since the end of September, the bisphenol A market has turned down and continued to fall. In November, the domestic bisphenol A market continued to be weak, but the decline slowed down. As the price was gradually close to the cost line, the market had become more concerned. Some intermediate traders and downstream users were gradually entering the market for inquiries, and bisphenol A holders were gradually slowing down their sentiment of shipping at low prices. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the market negotiation price was 11,875 RMB/ton on the 8th, down 9.44% from November 1. Compared with the market offer of 16,478 RMB/ton on September 28 (the highest point in the second half of the year), the market price fell 28%.
Analysis review
Recently, the two downstream mainly digested contracts, and the purchase of new orders was limited. The overall operating rate of downstream epoxy resin and PC was around 50%, mainly based on the digestion of contracts. The epoxy resin market continued to fall in November. Under the influence of many negative factors, the market was hard to hear of real orders, and the atmosphere was pessimistic, mainly sporadic small orders. As of November 8, the negotiated ex factory price of liquid epoxy resin in East China was 16,000-16,600 RMB/ton, and the negotiated mainstream price of solid epoxy resin in Huangshan was 15,600-16,200 RMB/ton. On the PC side, the factory continued to fall by 300-1,000 RMB/ton this week, and Zhejiang Petrochemical's three rounds of auction fell by 300 RMB/ton compared with last week. However, considering the comprehensive cost factors, the continued sharp decline might be small. As of November 8, the negotiated price of medium and high-end materials in East China was 16,800-18,500 RMB/ton, and the actual order was negotiated.
The raw material market rose and fell, and the continuous downturn of phenol could hardly support bisphenol A. The phenol market across the country continues to be weak. Sinopec East China phenol was quoted at 9,500 RMB/ton. The negotiated prices of major mainstream markets also fell to varying degrees. The market terminal buying interest was not good, and the shipping pressure of the cargo holders was large. It is expected to remain weak in the short term. The reference price in East China market is 9,350-9,450 RMB/ton. Due to the sudden decline of port inventory and the tight supply expectation, the acetone market stopped falling and rebounded this week, with a significant increase. The negotiated price in East China was 5,900-6,000 RMB/ton. Due to the limited supply of goods, the holder was reluctant to sell obviously, the offer was firm, the purchase slowed down after the terminal small order followed up, the acetone will be firm in the short term, and it should focus on the new products in the long term.
Market outlook
Although the bisphenol A market continued to decline, the market price had gradually approached the cost line, and the decline had slowed down. Recently, two production lines of Changchun Chemical Bisphenol A Plant were overhauled, and Nantong Xingchen and South Asia Plastics were shut down for overhaul. The overall operating rate was around 60%, and the supply side had also been tightened. However, there was no obvious cost support from the raw material end, and the two downstream were still in a continuous downturn and had no improvement trend. SunSirs expects the bisphenol A market to operate in a weak and volatile way in the short term, focusing on downstream demand and the influence of the market news.
