Price trend
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of October 25, 2022, the reference average ex factory price of domestic industrial dimethyl carbonate was 6,266 RMB/ton. Compared with October 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6,866 RMB/ton), the price decreased by 600 RMB/ton, or 8.74%.
Analysis review
It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that since October (10.1-10.26), the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate rose first and then declined, showing a downward trend as a whole. After returning from the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the dimethyl carbonate market was active, and the dimethyl carbonate market had a short rise. The driving force behind the rise of dimethyl carbonate market mainly came from the support from the demand side and the cost side. First of all, the downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate was good after the festival, the inquiry atmosphere was positive, and the demand side provided market support. Secondly, the raw material propylene oxide market was running at a high level, and the cost side was also strong. Therefore, the dimethyl carbonate market rose by 4.85% in the three days after the festival.
After the completion of staged replenishment, the market transaction of dimethyl carbonate gradually recovered to calm. On October 12, the market price of dimethyl carbonate began to drop from a high level, and the market focus continued to drop. The decline of dimethyl carbonate market mainly came from the following two aspects:
First, on the demand side, after the early stage replenishment, in the middle and late October, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate weakened, the support given by the demand side became loose, the trading atmosphere in the market was light, and the dimethyl carbonate market began to decline.
Second, in terms of cost, in the middle and late October, the market price of raw material propylene oxide fell from a high level, and the cost side gave insufficient support to dimethyl carbonate.
Therefore, with the support of both the demand side and the cost side weakened, the market of dimethyl carbonate continued to weaken. As of October 26, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate was around 6,100-6,500 RMB/ton. Compared with the peak price of this month, the price decreased by about 700-1,000 RMB/ton, with a maximum drop of 12.96% in the month.
In terms of upstream propylene oxide, since October (10.1-10.24), the overall domestic propylene oxide market was running downward. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9,733.33 RMB/ton on October 24, a decrease of 3.63% compared with that on October 1 (10,100 RMB/ton).
Market outlook
At present, the overall trading and investment atmosphere of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is cold, and the downstream is mainly cautious. Most deals are small orders just on demand, and the mentality of the industry is general. Dimethyl carbonate mathematicians from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is dominated by narrow range adjustment and operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.
