As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week and then rose. By the end of this week, spot copper was offered 64,023.33 RMB/ton, down 0.92% from the price of 64,616.67 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week, and down 14.99% year on year.
According to the weekly ups and downs chart of SunSirs, in the past three months, the copper price rose for seven weeks, fell for four weeks, and remained flat for one week. Recently, the copper price fluctuated widely.
Analysis review
Macro: The domestic government continued to maintain economic stability. The US dollar was expected to be supported by the fast-paced interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve, but the news of the resignation of the British Prime Minister boosted non US currencies such as the British pound, and the decline of the US dollar index boosted non-ferrous metals.
Supply side: The risk of supply disturbance still existed. LME discussed the possibility of banning Russian metal trading, and this was the focus of the LME annual meeting market. Copper concentrate supply was loose, and TC continued to rise; The new production capacity was put into operation. The domestic refined copper output in September was 909,000 tons, up 6% month on month and up 13% year on year. The supply pressure gradually increased in the later period.
Second, in terms of cost, the market of propylene oxide as raw material declined, and the cost support for dimethyl carbonate was insufficient.
Demand side: In September, more than 1.5 trillion yuan of infrastructure projects were intensively started, infrastructure investment was further boosted, and infrastructure in the fourth quarter is expected to enter a new round of construction strengthening stage; The supply and demand of new energy vehicles continued to boom; Home appliances were encumbered by real estate.
Inventory: On October 20, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 5,477 tons to 65,070 tons. LME copper inventory fell 2,300 tons to 136,700 tons, 6,250 tons less than the beginning of the week.
Market outlook
To sum up, the macro uncertainty is large, the supply side is loose, the demand for new energy is strong, and the traditional demand is weak. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide fluctuation trend in the short term.
