Main trend of futures: In September, the natural rubber futures generally rose sharply first, then retreated and continued to fluctuate in a small range. On the first day, the main force was 13,270 RMB/ ton, the highest point in the middle of the month was nearly 13,500 RMB/ ton, and on September 30, the main force was 13,135 RMB/ ton, down about 1% in the month.
Spot commodity index: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on September 29 was 36.67, up 0.03 points from yesterday, down 63.33% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 34.42% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Commodity market: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in September showed a volatile upward trend, and the trend was weak due to the callback at the end of the month. The market reported 11,810 RMB/ ton on the first day and 12,310 RMB/ ton on September 30, with a monthly increase of 4.23%; The highest price of this month is 12,400 RMB/ ton on September 27, and the lowest price is 11,702 RMB/ ton on September 7, with the maximum monthly amplitude of 5.96%. Among them, the first ten days saw a slight downward trend of 0.88%: the mainstream quotation in the East China market was slightly adjusted from 11,810 RMB/ ton to 11,702 RMB/ ton, only about 100 RMB/ ton; In the middle of the year, it rose 3.64% strongly: East China reported 12,150 RMB/ ton on September 11 and 12,132 RMB/ ton on September 20; In the last ten days, the fluctuation range was 1.57%. On September 21, East China reported 12,120 RMB/ ton, and on September 30, 12,310 RMB/ ton.
Industrial factors: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the supply of natural rubber at home and abroad was strong in September, and the price of glue did not change much. Thailand glue was about 45.5-45.7 baht/kg, and Hainan glue was about 11,000 RMB/ ton; The arrival of goods at the port has increased, the spot circulation is smooth, and there are still goods arriving at the port after the festival, the spot inventory has accumulated and the order delay continues to arrive at the port; Although the operating rate of finished products of downstream tire enterprises rose slightly in the month, the new purchase volume did not increase significantly due to weak demand orders and sufficient inventory in the factory, and the purchase demand before the festival was lower than that of the previous "Golden Ninth"; Although there is typhoon in the production area in the month, it lasts for a short time and the rubber price rises and falls rapidly. On the whole, the natural rubber market fluctuates slightly in this month.
Macro factors: In September, the international crude oil futures continued to plummet by nearly 10%. In the month, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures fell below the $80 threshold, hitting a low point since January 10, and the oil price fell for four consecutive weeks, the longest decline since this year. The market is increasingly worried about the economic downturn, and the oil price has been falling constantly against the background of continued geopolitical deterioration. Since the third quarter, WTI has fallen by more than 20%. According to the analysis, the oil price will still seek a balance between the supply shortage and the demand recession expectation in the future, and the superposition of interest rate increase cycle, geopolitical tension and other factors will make the oil market more volatile. In 2022, the continuation of the U.S. monetary policy will continue to depress oil prices. In the medium and long term, oil prices may still have opportunities. On the one hand, the supply side is favorable, and once demand rebounds, oil prices will continue to rise.
Considering the recent downstream tire orders and purchase demand status, it is unlikely that natural rubber will rise significantly without major extreme weather impact and downstream demand improvement, and the probability will remain volatile.
