According to the nickel price monitoring of SunSirs, nickel prices rose first and then fell in September. The nickel price at the beginning of the month was 172,116.67 RMB/ton, and the nickel price rose slightly to 187,200 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 8.76% and a year-on-year increase of 31.29%.
Analysis review
Macro: In September, the European Central Bank raised all three major interest rates by 75 basis points, the first significant rate hike since 1999 by 75 basis points. The US CPI in August exceeded expectations. The US CPI in August rose by 8.3% year-on-year, which was higher than the market expectation of 8.1%; the month-on-month increase was 0.1%, and the market expected a decline of 0.1%. At 2 a.m. on Thursday, September 22, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution as scheduled, raising interest rates by 75 basis points again.
Supply: As the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching, ferronickel plants have begun to stock up, and mine offers are firm. The price of nickel ore is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the cost is supported.
In terms of demand: the stainless steel industry chain has been repaired this month. The output in September was expected to be 2.5914 million tons, an increase of 13.72% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 16.49%, both year-on-year and month-on-month increased. The gradual release of new production capacity in Indonesia, coupled with the lower-than-expected recovery of domestic real estate, has suppressed the price of ferronickel under the influence of two factors; the demand for new energy is strong, and the favorable national policies drive the consumption of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the trend of high nickelization of ternary batteries will continue to drive the demand for nickel elements. At the current low level of inventory, coupled with the pre-holiday industrial inventory support prices to a certain extent.
Market outlook
To sum up: In September, nickel supply was tight, inventories were low, and some downstream demand was relatively strong, supporting the rise in nickel prices. In October, the supply of nickel ore was tight. In terms of demand, October is a traditional peak season, and downstream stainless steel and new energy may improve. According to the annual price comparison chart of SunSirs in recent years, nickel prices may rise slightly in October, the macro is bearish, and the overall increase is limited. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate to be strong in October.
