This week (9.16-9.23) the ammonium chloride market rose slightly. According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of September 23, the price of ammonium chloride was 1,012 RMB/ton, an increase of 3.85% from last Friday's 975 RMB/ton. This week, the ex-factory price of ammonium chloride was basically stable, and the mainstream ex-factory price of dry ammonium chloride for agriculture in China was between 800 and 970 RMB/ton. Merchants' offers rose slightly, and the mainstream quotation in the agricultural ammonium chloride dry ammonium market was 900~1,050 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
Support of cost side: Since September, the price of raw material liquid ammonia rose, and the cost of ammonium chloride rose; the price of nitrogen fertilizer urea rose, and the alternative aspect supported the ammonium chloride market. The quotations of enterprises were firm, and some enterprises tentatively raised the price of ammonium chloride by 20~50 RMB/ton. The ammonium chloride market was supported by this and the bullish atmosphere was strengthened.
This week (9.16-9.23) the price of raw material liquid ammonia rose, and the cost had support for ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of September 23, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 4,373 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.55% from last Friday's 4,306 RMB/ton; compared with the price of 3,866 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 13.10%. The sharp rise in the market is mainly related to the supply-demand tension and the cost-benefit impact of higher prices of upstream coal and natural gas.
This week (9.16-9.23) domestic urea prices fell slightly, but still had support for ammonium chloride overall According to the monitoring of SunSirs, as of September 23, the domestic price of urea was 2,553 RMB/ton, down 0.97% from last Friday's 2,578 RMB/ton; compared with the price of 2,400 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, up 6.38%.
The supply and demand side was weak: with the gradual resumption of production by the pre-maintenance enterprises, the supply of ammonium chloride was sufficient, and the domestic joint alkali plant started around 80%. Coupled with the large inventory of ammonium chloride, the pressure on the supply side of ammonium chloride was still relatively large. In addition, the demand side continued to be weak, and the downstream compound fertilizer started around 30%; the demand for ammonium chloride in autumn fertilizer had basically ended, and the winter storage had not yet started. The current situation of supply and demand restricted the upward range of ammonium chloride to a certain extent.
Market outlook
The ammonium chloride analyst of SunSirs believes that the current supply of ammonium chloride is still loose and the demand support is weak, but the price of raw materials is rising. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to rise in the later period, but the upward range is limited.
