In September, bisphenol A was affected by the rising upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and its own supply side tension, showing a wide-scale upward trend, especially in the three working days this week, the market surged by nearly 1,500 RMB/ton, and continued to rise sharply, far exceeding expectations. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the domestic bisphenol A market offer was at 13,000 RMB/ton on September 1, and the market offer pushed up to 15,450 RMB/ton on September 22, with a cumulative increase of 18.85% in September.
Analysis review
In September, the double raw materials continued to rise, with a large increase, and the cost of downstream bisphenol A was under pressure.
The upstream dual raw material phenol/acetone continued to rise, with phenol rising by 14.45% and acetone by 16.6%. Under the pressure of cost, the bisphenol A factory raised the listing price several times, and traders had a positive attitude and also pushed up the offer.
The domestic phenol market continued to rise and fell slightly on the 21st, but the support for the downstream was still strong. In September, the supply of phenol continued to be tight. According to statistics, the operating rate of domestic phenol units was 75%, and the operating rate was relatively low compared with the long-term high probability of 95%. In mid-September, the first phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 650,000-ton/year phenol ketone plant was shut down for tower washing on the 6th, and restarted after a week of shutdown. In addition, the typhoon weather in East China in mid-September affected the time of cargo ships and arrivals at the port, and it was difficult to replenish the source of imported goods. The stockholders were reluctant to sell, the offer pushed up, and the focus of the negotiation also rose. As of September 21, the phenol market in East China was negotiated to 10,750 RMB/ton, and the average negotiated price nationwide was 10,887 RMB/ton, compared with the national average offer of 9,512 RMB/ton on September 1, an increase of 14.45%.
The raw material acetone also showed a wide upward trend, and fell slightly on the 21st, but the support for the downstream was still strong. On September 21, the acetone market in East China was negotiated to 5,450 RMB/ton, and the national market average price was 5,640 RMB/ton, compared with the national average price of 4,837 RMB/ton on September 1, an increase of 16.6%. The continuous upward trend of acetone in September was mainly due to the decrease in its own supply and the increase in downstream export orders, which was a positive support for raw materials. The operating rate of the domestic acetone industry is low, and more importantly, the port inventory in East China in September was at a low level during the year. Last weekend, the port inventory fell to 30,000 tons, hitting a new low since the beginning of the year. It is understood that a small amount of supply will be replenished at the end of the month. Although there is no pressure on supply at present, and there is still an upward trend in the short term, it is worth paying attention to the maintenance of Sinopec Mitsui until the end of the month. Bluestar Harbin is expected to restart on the 25th. In October, it is necessary to pay more attention to the operation of Yantai Wanhua's 650,000 tons/year phenol ketone plant.
The continuous rise of downstream products was good for the raw material market, and the continuous rise of PC obviously boosted. In late September, epoxy resin also broke through and pulled up.
In September, the PC market continued to rise unilaterally, and the spot prices of all brands increased. As of September 21, the PC reference offer of SunSirs was 18,316.7 RMB/ton, a change of +6.18% compared with 17,250 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, the PC factory adjusted prices several times, and Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its price by 1,000 yuan for several rounds of auctions. The increase significantly boosted the market, and PC hit a high in the second half of the year. The downstream epoxy resin continued to be affected by the raw materials bisphenol A and epichlorohydrin. Due to the fluctuations of the two raw materials, the epoxy resin did not rise significantly in the first half of September. But since this week, under the pressure of cost of epoxy resin, manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and the sentiment of price support was strong. On the 21st, the offer of liquid epoxy resin in East China pushed up to 20,000 RMB/ton.
Spot resources continued to be tight, the operating rate of industrial installations was low, traders were reluctant to sell goods, and the market rose significantly as factories continued to raise its price
Since September, bisphenol A has continued to rise steadily from the previous month. The main production enterprises mainly supplied long-term customers, the amount of spot export was limited, and the supply of imported goods was limited, and contracts accounted for a large proportion. The RMB continued to depreciate in September, and the exchange rate of the US dollar exceeded 7. The external market rose synchronously, import negotiations were cautious, and due to the influence of the typhoon weather in the middle of the month, the import shipping schedule was delayed to varying degrees.
In terms of installations, Sinopec's Mitsui installation was shut down for maintenance. At the beginning of the month, Huizhou Zhongxin stopped until the 5th, and Yanhua Polycarbon resumed and restarted on the 15th. This looks like a loss of nearly 20,000 tonnes of supply in September. The current industry operating rate is around 70%. Under the situation that the supply side has been tight since August, the factory has been continuously increasing due to the influence of raw materials. In this case, the stockholders are obviously reluctant to sell, and the low price is not available. After the factory bids, the market mostly appears with a price increase.
Market outlook
The spot is still tight, the downstream epoxy resin and pc have continued to rise, and the market is still mainly bullish. Compared with the year and the historical high, there is still room for growth. Continue to pay attention to the auction orientation on the 22nd.
From the perspective of SunSirs, the domestic bisphenol A market is still in a tense state recently. In terms of factories, mainly supply contract users and have no pressure on production and sales. However, under the pressure of high cost of raw materials, it is expected to continue to rise. Holders are reluctant to sell and the offer is firm, and there is no pressure on shipments. There is still room for downstream epoxy resin and PC to continue to rise. SunSirs expects that it is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and pay attention to the auction situation on the market.
