Price trend
According to the monitoring sample data of SunSirs, as of December 22, the average enterprises price of melamine was 9,600.00 RMB/ton, which was a decrease of 21.53% compared with the price on last Thursday (December 16). Compared with the price on November 22, the price decreased by 45.25% and the price decreased by 44.51% in a three-month cycle. Currently, melamine companies offer prices ranging from 9,400 RMB/ton to 10,500 RMB/ton.
Analysis review
Recently, the market price of melamine has stopped falling and rebounded. On the cost side, the price of raw material urea has risen slightly recently, the price of melamine has fallen sharply in the previous period, the current cost pressure is obvious. On the supply side, the operating rate of the melamine market is still at a high level, but the inventory pressure of enterprises is not large for the time being, and the orders received in advance by enterprises are relatively sufficient. On the demand side, inquiries in the export market have increased, while domestic trade has not improved significantly. The market atmosphere of melamine has improved, and the price has stopped falling and rebounding.
Upstream urea, the domestic urea market fell on December 22, which was 0.48% higher than the price on December 16. The upstream coal and liquefied natural gas prices have recently consolidated at a low level, and cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the advancement of agricultural demand is accelerating, while industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparations have begun to increase in some areas, and winter storage of chemical fertilizers is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine has fallen sharply, corporate inventories are under pressure, and the focus of market negotiations has weakened. From the perspective of supply, some gas-head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily production of urea dropped slightly. On the whole, urea cost support has weakened, downstream demand is general, urea supply is insufficient, and the market outlook for urea market may decline slightly.Market outlook
The melamine analyst of SunSirs believes that there is a certain degree of support from the current cost side, and the company's delivery is acceptable, it is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be stable and tend to be strong, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.
