Price trend
According to the monitoring sample data of SunSirs, as of December 7th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 13,393.33 RMB/ton, which was a 16.98% decrease compared with the price on December 1, and a 31.78% decrease compared with the price on November 7. It fell by 13.59% in a three-month cycle.
Analysis review
The market price of melamine fell broadly this week. Recently, the price of raw material urea has fallen, and the cost support has weakened. The overall start of the melamine market was at a high level, but the demand side support was weak. Affected by environmental protection control and other factors in some regions, downstream start-ups were limited, and rigid demand was weak. In terms of exports, wait-and-see was the mainstay, support was limited, manufacturers’shipments were under pressure, market benefits were scarce, and the focus of melamine negotiations had weakened.
Upstream urea, the domestic urea ex-factory price fell slightly on December 6, which was 48.00 RMB/ton lower than the price on December 3, a decrease of 1.92%, and a year-on-year increase of 35.61% compared to the same period last year. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have fallen slightly recently, and cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand has risen slightly, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. The advancement of fertilizer storage in winter is slow, downstream compound fertilizer plants have begun to purchase large orders of urea, melamine companies’inventories are under pressure, and the focus of market negotiations has weakened. From the perspective of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers is relatively high, with a daily output of about 150,000 tons of urea. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and urea production will decrease. On the whole, urea cost support is general, downstream demand is mainly rigid, market trading atmosphere is general, and urea supply is reduced.
Market outlook
The melamine analyst of SunSirs believes that the price of urea has declined recently, the support from the cost side has weakened, the market supply exceeds demand, the company's shipments are not smooth, and the inventory is under pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may be weaker, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.
