Weekly oil data from the US Energy Administration and the American Petroleum Institute are expected show a 400,000-barrel build in US crude stocks for the week ended April 13, analysts polled by Platts forecast Monday.
API is set to release its weekly inventory report at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) Tuesday; EIA's numbers will be released at 10:30 am EDT (1430 GMT) Wednesday.
The five-year average, according to EIA's data, shows crude rising by just 15,000 barrels. The trend for this time of year is for crude stocks to build. The five-year averages show crude stocks building by roughly 8 million barrels through April into the first week of May.
While the average of analyst estimates came to a 400,000-barrel build, individual estimates were mixed.
Carl Larry of Oil Outlooks and Opinions expects a draw of 1.5 million barrels, citing a decline in imports from Saudi Arabia ahead of the expected influx of crude coming down the Seaway pipeline, which is being reversed to bring supply from Cushing, Oklahoma, to the Gulf Coast.
Enterprise Partners, operators of the Seaway pipeline, announced Monday that the reversal is being pushed ahead by about 2 weeks, starting May 17, as opposed to the original date of June 1.
According to analysts polled by Platts, gasoline stocks should build by 140,000 barrels, while distillate stocks should be unchanged.
Analysts were looking for refinery utilization to increase by 0.78 percentage points to 84.58% of capacity as refiners exit maintenance.
Phil Flynn of PFGBest expects a gasoline stocks build of 2 million barrels.
According to Flynn, "some of the major refiners are coming back online, so we should see supply start to build ahead of the [Memorial Day] holiday. Last week was the crescendo. And if not last week than it will be this week," Flynn said, predicting that gasoline stocks should soon begin to decline.
EIA's data shows the five-year average for gasoline stocks declining by about 1 million barrels, in sync with the trend for this time of year. US gasoline stocks have fallen 14.5 million barrels to 217.636 million barrels between February 10 and April 6, according to the EIA data. Stocks typically begin building around late May.
Carl Larry expects a 2.25 million barrel down of gasoline stocks, as import numbers will likely remain weak, matching "tepid" US demand.
