After the festival, the viscose staple fiber quotes were chaotic, and the bullish sentiment was strong, and some manufacturers closed their orders. As of October 9, 2021, the domestic ex-factory price of 1.2D*38mm viscose staple fiber was 12,680 yuan/ton, an increase of 440 yuan/ton or 3.6% from the pre-holiday period.
Since late September, due to the double control, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber manufacturers has dropped significantly, less than 60% before the holiday, which may drop to the lowest level since 2013. As the policy direction is still unclear, the downstream rayon yarn may have a mentality of "buying up, not buying down" stocking, and the willingness to purchase has increased. Load reduction is superimposed on downstream purchases, the process of destocking of viscose staple fiber is accelerated, and the spot inventory has entered a tight state.
During the National Day, the overall load rate of the industry was weak. After the holiday, the viscose staple fiber quotation was chaotic. Some manufacturers reported 14,000-14700 yuan/ton for viscose staple fiber (1.2D*38mm), an increase of about 2,000 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Higher quotations may boost the market to a certain extent. Some manufacturers will not offer external quotations for the time being, and they will mainly wait and see the market outlook. Due to the tightening of supply of some raw materials, partial shortage of auxiliary materials has become a production shortcoming, and the willingness to purchase pulp for viscose is under pressure.
In terms of transactions, both upstream and downstream are mainly on the sidelines, transactions are sporadic, and the trading atmosphere is not improving.
Downstream people cotton yarn market
Or under the influence of the expected rise in viscose staple fiber, the price of rayon yarn after the holiday will rise sharply, and manufacturers may have a certain willingness to hold up the price. According to SunSirs price monitoring, as of October 9, 2021, the average ex-factory price of rayon yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class product) was 19,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton from before the holiday, an increase of 11.7%. There may be stocking sentiment in the downstream of the terminal, and the trading atmosphere may be improving, but the overall market atmosphere is relatively light, and most of them take a wait-and-see attitude.
Outlook forecast
Under the continuous "dual control", the chemical fiber plant may continue to be under pressure. At the same time, due to tight supply, post-holiday raw material price hikes and reduced operating rates, some manufacturers raised their prices, and some continued to close the market. The viscose staple fiber quotations were bullish. Under the situation of both supply and demand declines, all links may raise prices, and the mentality of "buying up and not buying down" may be fermented. SunSirs analysts expect viscose staple fiber prices to pick up in the short term, and follow-up policy changes are still needed.
