Trend analysis
Nickel prices were relatively strong last week. As of September 10, the spot price was 155,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.79% from the 147816.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, an increase of 21.05% from the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 32.51%.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have risen by 7 and fallen by 5, and have been relatively strong in the past two weeks.
Macro factors: Nickel prices in the first half of this week came back under pressure against the rebound of the US dollar index. In the second half of the week, the market sentiment was good.
Nickel Industry Chain
On the supply side: In August, the actual production of ferronickel in China & Indonesia totaled 118,800 tons, an increase of 1.98% month-on-month and 18.91% year-on-year. The global shipping market has tight shipping capacity, and shipping costs have soared; domestic ports are congested, ship demurrage is high, and the cost of raw materials for factories has increased. With the overall shortage of resources, the nickel ore market as a whole is in a state of pricelessness, and the focus of bargaining continues to rise.
Downstream: In July, China's stainless steel production decreased; in August, stainless steel production schedule declined slightly; in September, stainless steel production schedule further decreased. From the perspective of the new energy production chain, lithium iron phosphate in batteries has increased significantly, and the proportion of ternary batteries has decreased relatively. From the perspective of nickel sulfate supply, the wet process project in Indonesia is being put into production, while the domestic electrolytic nickel conversion production line of nickel sulfate has basically changed. However, from the price performance of nickel sulfate, the price is still high, but it has become weaker than the previous period. .
To sum up: last week, the supply of nickel was tight, and the LME inventory continued to decline, which supported nickel prices. The demand for downstream stainless steel and new energy was general. The short-term fluctuations of nickel prices are expected to be dominant.
