Price trend
According to data from SunSirs’bulk list, toluene fluctuated downward to the end of the month after a week of rising in August. On August 1, the price of toluene was 5,810 RMB/ton; on August 31, the price was 5,630 RMB/ton, down 3.1% from the beginning of the month, and up 67.56% from the same period last year..
Analysis review
At the beginning of August, due to the decrease in export sales of petrochemical companies in South China, market supply decreased, coupled with the delay in arrival of domestic trade ships, market prices rose. With cargo arriving at the port, the tension eased, prices began to fall, and the market's focus turned back to the demand side. Crude oil fell broadly in the middle of the month, market demand continued to be weak, market mentality was bearish, and prices continued to decline.
In terms of external disks, as of August 31, South Korea’s imported toluene price was 753 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton or 1.57% from July 30.
In terms of crude oil, in August, crude oil fluctuated first, and then fluctuated up. The market was still concerned about the impact of the delta mutation virus on demand recovery.Compared to July 30th, Brent fell by 3.34 US dollars/barrel, or 4.38%; WTI fell by 4.45 US dollars/barrel, or 7.37% in this month.
Downstream: In terms of TDI, in August, TDI in East China fluctuated down with a wide range. At the end of the month, domestically produced goods were executed at 14,333.33 RMB/ton, down 5.49% from the beginning of the month and 1.38% from the same period last year.
In terms of the PX market, domestic PX stabilized after rising at the beginning of this month. The price at the end of the month was 7,300 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.82% from the beginning of the month and an increase of 58.7% from the same period last year.
Market outlook
On the raw material side, the trend of crude oil is full of uncertainty. The spread of Delta virus still restricts demand recovery, and international oil prices are under pressure in short term. The market outlook continues to focus on the impact of the epidemic, OPEC+'s decision on crude oil production, the dynamics of US crude oil and refined oil inventories, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
The demand side continues to be weak, and the short-term weak market is difficult to change; the supply of toluene is expected to increase in September, and the market outlook is bearish, and toluene is expected to continue the weak trend. Entering September, pay attention to whether there is an increase in downstream demand. Pay attention to changes in downstream demand, and the impact of crude oil and external disk trends on toluene prices.
