Internal and external trends: LME copper fluctuated downward today. As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month LME copper price was USD 8,927 per ton, down 1.42% daily. Shanghai Copper’s main 2109 contract fell sharply, with a maximum of 68,500 yuan/ton, a minimum of 66710 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 66,790 yuan/ton, down 3.08% from the closing price of the previous trading day. The open interest was 108,568 contracts, a decrease of 4,651 contracts. The basis difference is 930 yuan/ton; the Shanghai copper price difference between 2109 and 21 October is 180 yuan/ton.
Market focus: (1) The minutes of the Fed's July meeting show that the Fed may reach the threshold for reducing the scale of debt purchases this year. Most participants pointed out that if the economy develops according to their expectations, it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year, adding that the economy has reached the inflation target and is“close to satisfaction”with the progress of employment growth. (2) According to the latest report of the World Bureau of Metal Statistics: the global copper market has a shortage of 222,000 tons from January to June 2021, and the global copper market has a shortage of 46,000 tons from January to April 2021.
Spot analysis: spot 1# electrolytic copper price is 67480-67960 yuan/ton, the average price is 67720 yuan/ton, and the daily decline is 1480 yuan/ton. Yangtze River Nonferrous.com reported that the holders are more active in shipments, while the downstream is on the sidelines. The receivers purchase on-demand, and the overall transaction performance is average.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Today's Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 38,251 tons, a daily decrease of 225 tons; LME copper inventory was 245,125 tons, which was the same as the previous trading day.
Main positions: The top 20 long positions of Shanghai Copper's main 2109 contract are 67806, -417, short positions 73265, -3969, and net short positions 5459, -905, both long and short positions are reduced.
Market Research and Judgment: The minutes of the Fed meeting suggested that Fed officials formulated a plan to slow down monthly debt purchases before the end of the year at the July meeting, and added that the economy has reached the inflation target and that the progress of employment growth is "close to satisfaction." ". Today, pay attention to the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of August 14, and the number of continued claims for unemployment benefits in the United States as of August 7. Fundamentally, the spot processing fees of copper concentrate rebounded continuously, and the tight supply and demand gradually eased. Downstream consumption is not slow in the off-season, social inventories are slightly de-stocked, demand resilience is strong, and copper inventories still have room for de-allocation. On the whole, the recent trend of copper prices has been relatively weak, mainly due to the macro cautiousness. The short-term copper price may continue to maintain a volatile and weak trend, and the fundamental support is temporarily limited. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the Shanghai Copper 2109 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross down, and pay attention to 66600 first-line support. In terms of operation, it is recommended that intraday short trading be the main one.
