Beginning in mid-to-late June, palm oil and soybean oil started to oscillate. Palm oil performed better than soybean oil, and the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil was getting smaller and smaller. Quietly, palm oil and soybean oil oscillated and rose for nearly two months. As of August 4, the mainstream quotation of palm oil has reached 8,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.46%, and the mainstream quotation of soybean oil is 9,066 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.08%.
From May to July, palm oil showed an overall increase, with only 4 weeks showing a decline, with the largest drop of 8%. Under the strong boost of Mapan palm oil, palm oil rose relatively well, with the largest weekly increase of 6.88%, which appeared in early May. The performance was poor in the first half of June. Palm oil was relatively strong in July, and the market improved at the end of the month. In early August, palm oil ushered in a rebound after a sharp dive, rising 1.28% in a single day on the 4th.
From May to July, soybean oil has been showing ups and downs, with more weekly increases. Soybean oil saw the biggest weekly increase after May Day and at the end of June, as high as 4.44%. In mid-June, soybean oil fell the most, with a drop of 8.72%. Beginning in May, the Soybean Oil State Reserve Auctions started one after another. The soy oil growth rate, which has continued to skyrocket, has declined. Coupled with the increased pressure on soybean oil inventories, the performance of soybean oil is weaker than palm oil. Soybean oil fell for three weeks in July, and only rose 3.55% in the week of July 12. Soybean oil also rebounded after diving in early August, rising 1.19% in a single day on the 4th.
Bullish factors support soybean oil and palm oil gains in early August
Beginning in mid-to-late June, soybean oil palm oil has started a pattern where the market has continued to grow stronger and the market has risen strongly. Although prices have risen and fallen sharply, the overall trend has continued to rise. In July, the export data of Malay palm oil on the external disk was strong, crude oil prices rose, and palm oil on the external disk rose. Supported by multiple bullish factors, soybean oil palm oil remained strong.
In August, due to the downward adjustment of Malay palm oil export data, the negative pressure on external disks, and the greater pressure on soybean oil inventories, it came to the front line of 900,000 tons. The terminal consumer demand was flat. The palm oil and soybean oil spot market plunged sharply on August 2. Palm oil fell more than 3% in a single day, and soybean oil fell more than 3%. On August 4, after the sharp drop in palm oil and soybean oil, the demand for biodiesel is expected to increase. Palm oil stocks are low, at the first line of 300,000 tons. Supported by bullishness, palm oil and soybean oil once again ushered in a rebound, with a single-day increase of more than 1%. Because of the increased substitution of palm oil, the price gap with soybean oil has narrowed.
There are still bullish factors for external oils and fats. The long-term supply of Malay palm oil is tight, and domestic palm oil stocks are low, but bullishness is still there. Palm oil and soybean oil is expected to continue to rise in the market outlook.
