According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the average market price at the beginning of the week was about 1,025 RMB/ ton, and the average market price at the weekend was about 1,062.5 RMB/ ton, with a price increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year increase of 83.9%. On July 22, the thermal coal commodity index was 126.81, the same as the previous day, reaching a record high in the cycle, an increase of 183.69% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016(Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
In terms of origin: in terms of origin, coal mines around the country have resumed production, and the thermal coal supply has increased. However, due to the coal mine accident in Yulin recently, the power coal supply is still tight due to the impact of safety inspection.
Downstream power plants: due to the impact of summer to meet the peak, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, and the coal inventory of the thermal plant remains low. Data show that the average daily coal consumption of power plants in eight coastal provinces is about 2.2 million tons, and the number of days available for inventory is reduced to about 8 days. Due to rainfall, the coal transportation channel was damaged to varying degrees, which affected the coal transportation to a certain extent, and the coal transfer in volume of the port decreased.
SunSirs analysts believe that the supply guarantee policy is frequent and the thermal coal supply side is tight. Due to the weather in the downstream, the daily consumption of the power plant increases and the inventory is low. The power plant still needs to replenish the storage of thermal coal. It is comprehensively expected that the price of thermal coal in the later stage is still strong in China and mainly depends on the demand of the downstream market.
