1. Price trend
Flos lonicerae began to stabilize, and the current price of Hebei fos lonicerae is around 130-135 yuan/kg, which is basically the same as the end of last month.
Bozhou market: The market of fos lonicerae has stopped falling and stabilized recently. Hebei's production area is just three crops of new flowers. The quality of the yellow bars is too large. The market moves relatively smoothly in the first crop of full inspection. The price of Hebei products is around 160 yuan. The price of the second crop is 130-145 yuan; the first crop in Shandong is 145 yuan, and the second crop is 125-130 yuan.
Anguo Market: The first crop of the origin moves smoothly, the second crop moves generally, and the third crop is producing new ones. The market sources of goods cannot move as much as the place of origin, and the merchants are cautiously operating, mostly moving in small batches, and are afraid to purchase large quantities. The market has stopped falling and stabilized. Now the price of the first crop in Shandong is 145 yuan, and the price of the first crop in Henan is around 150 yuan.
Pingyi County, Shandong: Fos lonicerae is moving normally and the price is stable. The current super grade is 145 yuan/kg, the first grade is 135 yuan, the second grade is 120 yuan, the third grade is 110 yuan, and the outside range is 80-100 yuan. It is expected that the price will have to stabilize for some time.
Julu County, Xingtai City, Hebei Province: fos lonicerae, three crops of new products are new, and the number of new products on the market is not large. The recent market is running smoothly. Now the local price of the first crop of special grade goods is 160 yuan, and the price of the three crops of special green flowers is 130 Yuan, the price of uniform goods is 120 yuan; the price of white flower premium goods is 130 yuan, and the price of uniform flowers is 120 yuan.
Xinxiang, Henan: The second crop of local fos lonicerae has been picked, and the third crop is being picked. The current market is stable. There are not many merchants recently purchased, and the volume of goods is generally moving. The current price of the first crop including volume goods is about 150 yuan , The first-class goods are about 140 yuan, the pharmaceutical factory goods are about 120 yuan, and the flowering is about 105 yuan.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
In the absence of special epidemic demand, fos lonicerae has an annual sales volume of about 13,000 tons, which has huge market demand. The production areas are mainly distributed in Shandong Pingyi, Hebei Julu, and Henan Fengqiu. It is a relatively concentrated variety in the production area, and its annual supply The increase or decrease in output will have a direct impact on the market.
The number of production areas increased, the new production volume increased year by year
The market for fos lonicerae started in 2017. The price had been hovering in a downturn before, and production at that time was also shrinking. As the market rebounded, the market for fos lonicerae soared to 250 yuan in 2018. Under the stimulus of high prices, Farmers in the production area have been motivated to plant. Therefore, the government has implemented large-scale planting. Through the support of the fos lonicerae industry, the development trend has been rapid. It can also be said that the expansion of this planting area will exert certain pressure on the future market.
When the market is about to be adjusted, the new crown epidemic broke out in 2020, and the strong demand for the market has once again risen. The fos lonicerae market once again climbed to a high price of 280 yuan, which once again stimulated farmers' enthusiasm for planting and a second expansion of production area.
Fos lonicerae has strong adaptability and low soil requirements. It can be planted in loam, clay, and wasteland. At the same time, it has a certain degree of drought tolerance. It can be said to be distributed throughout the country, but the concentrated trading and scale production areas are still the traditional top three : Shandong Pingyi, Hebei Julu, Henan Fengqiu.
It usually takes 3-5 years for mature plants of fos lonicerae to enter the full blooming period. The full blooming period can be as long as 5-10 years. It has the characteristics of one-year planting and multi-year harvesting. According to time calculation, the first expanded fos lonicerae has entered the full blooming period. , In the absence of special abnormal weather, the production capacity will not be small in the next few years.
In addition, Dingxi, Gansu has vigorously developed fos lonicerae planting, with an area ofno less than 100,000 mu, and the future output cannot be underestimated. Originally, in 2020, the new price of fos lonicerae should be adjusted sharply, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the market did not fall into place one step at a time. After the new production in 2021, the price of fos lonicerae continues to decline.
According to statistics, the output of fos lonicerae in 2020 is 14,685 tons. The projected output in 2021 will be higher than in 2020.
The overall demand is relatively stable
fos lonicerae during the special period of the epidemic or after the development of new products on the market, the demand will increase sharply. In recent years, the demand has been relatively stable. The main demanding companies include Sinopharm, Sunflower Pharmaceutical, China Resources Sanjiu, Yiling Pharmaceutical, Revised Pharmaceutical, Nanjing Jinling, Jointown, Fusen Pharmaceutical, Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, Renhe Pharmaceutical, Enwei Pharmaceutical industry, etc. Beverage raw materials demand companies include Wanglaoji, Jiaduobao, Uni-President, Tongrentang, Wangwang and so on.
In 2020, the fos lonicerae beverage channel is also under pressure. When Wanglaoji’s national demand is facing a bottleneck, and silver flower dew is in low demand in the pharmacy retail terminal, the development of a new best-selling product line is the kingly way.
In terms of proprietary Chinese medicines, according to statistics, 142 Chinese patent medicines currently on the market contain fos lonicerae. Among them, fos lonicerae's most demanded Chinese patent medicines are Shuanghuanglian Oral Liquid, Qingrejiedu Oral Liquid and Yinqiaojiedu Granules. The top Chinese patent medicine companies in demand are Henan Fusen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., Harbin Children's Pharmaceutical Factory Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Fengchun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.
According to statistics, the demand for fos lonicerae in 2020 is 13,500 tons.
Fos lonicerae pesticide residue exceeding the standard becomes a thorny issue
The 2020 edition of the Pharmacopoeia has been implemented. The biggest difference between it and the 2015 edition of the Pharmacopoeia is the addition of 33 pesticide residue determinations.
Pesticide residues: 33 kinds of national pesticide residues, these 33 kinds of pesticides are the types banned by the country. For those plots in old production areas that have been planted for many years, the pesticide residues of the planted medicinal materials will basically exceed the standard due to the long-term use of pesticides and excessive pesticide residues.
With the implementation of the implementation standards, some fos lonicerae suppliers have returned goods, which is also one of the factors affecting the fos lonicerae market this year.
At present, the source of goods that can meet the pharmacopoeial standards is the best quality fos lonicerae around Fengqiu, Henan. It has a high pass rate in terms of pesticide residues. This is also the reason why there are more merchants buying goods after the new production this year.
3. Market outlook
In summary, the production areas of fos lonicerae have now entered Sancha production, the source of goods has entered the stage of normal walking and digestion, the planting area has increased, the output has increased year by year, and the overall demand has been relatively stable. The fos lonicerae will run smoothly in the short term, and it is difficult to appear large. Changes, there is a downside risk in the long run.
