Futures: Soybean oil 2109 shot up and fell back on Thursday, closing at 8078 (down 88), with a total of more than 7 thousand Masukura lots, and the trading volume continued to drop. The top 20 capital flows: the long-term part is dispersed and the position is increased, and the concentration is fine-tuned; the short-term is dispersed and the position is slightly increased, and the concentration is slightly increased. The Fed will gradually withdraw from the loose policy, strengthen domestic price stabilization supervision, and tighten macroeconomics, and risk assets will be under pressure as a whole. At present, palm oil is in a period of increasing stocks, domestic soybean oil stocks continue to rise, and the total stocks of the three major oils and fats exceed the level of the same period last year. U.S. agricultural products fell sharply, and U.S. soybean oil rebounded after a continuous decline. Domestic soybean oil fluctuated with the external market. After the night market rose, the market was reduced and the market fell. Short-term or wide fluctuations. Pay attention to the initiative of key funds, pay attention to external market trends and market expectations .
Strategic analysis: The current international macroeconomic environment is expected to be tightened and the domestic high-level regulation and control plan to do a good job in ensuring the supply and price stability of bulk commodities, maintaining stable economic operation, policy adjustments and pressure products, foreign markets, supply and demand and market sentiment factors have a comprehensive impact on the market. On the supply side, US soybean stocks are expected to be higher than expected, and US soybean oil crushes are expected to improve in the future. Domestic soybean arrivals continue to increase. This year, China’s imports of US soybeans may hit a new high, but the continued drought in North America will support low prices to some extent . On the demand side, soybean oil transactions and inventories rebounded month-on-month, and demand seasonally weakened. Expected increases in palm oil production are on the rise, the Indian epidemic restricts oil demand, and soybean oil as a whole tends to be under pressure and wide volatility. Operational reference: You can choose an opportunity to place empty orders after a sharp rise and over rise, and you can choose an opportunity to place more orders if the market drops significantly to an important support area.
Market strategy: Soybean oil 2109 may fluctuate in a short-term or wide volatility, pay attention to the initiative of key funds. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 7900-8000 area, you can consider trying more, if the market goes up against the pressure in the 8250-8350 area, you can consider flattening more and reducing more. Band operation: wait and see, if the 7850-7950 area stabilizes, you can consider wet storage to try more, if the market rises to the pressure of 8300-8450 area, you can consider wet storage to test empty. Key short-term positions: 8000, 8150.
Market news: USDA announced the June supply and demand report. The soybean crush of US soybeans in 2020/2021 has been reduced. Therefore, the beginning inventory of 2021/2022 increased from 120 million pu to 135 million pu. The rest of the new crop has not changed. The ending inventory is 1.55. Billion po. USDA: As of May 16, the US 21/22 soybean planting progress was 61%, the fastest record in the same period in history and 60% higher than market expectations. USDA: The US soybean crush in April was lower than expected. In April this year, the US soybean crush was 5.0956 million tons (170 million bushels), a decrease of 9.8 percentage points from March and a decrease of 7.4% from April last year. As of the end of April, US soybean oil inventories fell from 1.771 billion pounds in the previous month to 1.702 billion pounds, lower than expected, and 2.111 billion pounds in the same period last year. Brazil’s Ministry of Commerce and Trade: As of May 17, Brazil’s average daily export volume of soybeans in May was 880,000 tons, an increase of 25% from the same period last year, but slowed down from the first week of May, when the average export volume on Sunday exceeded 900,000 tons. . China Cereals and Oils Business Network: Domestic soybean oil stocks were 834,200 tons last weekend, a weekly increase of 47,500 tons, and 915,400 tons in the same period last year.
