1. Price trend
According to the monitoring data of the SunSirs, the average market price of thermal coal on June 14 was about 931.25 RMB/ton, on June 18, the average market price of thermal coal was 973.75 RMB/ton, the price increased by 4.56%, 70.68% higher than the same period last year. The thermal coal commodity index was 116.11 on June 17, 2.25 points higher than yesterday, 7.11% lower than the highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and 159.75% higher than the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)
In terms of origin: Sales of coal mines in origin still maintain a good situation in the early stage, there are still many coal pulling vehicles in coal mines, the overall supply of coal in the Ordos is still limited due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, and the coal production in Shanxi is even tighter due to the impact of a mining disaster.
Downstream power plant: Recently, due to the impact of peak and summer, the daily consumption of the power plant is high, the coal inventory of the power plant maintains a low level, and the willingness to replenish the warehouse is relatively strong. According to data, on June 16, the daily consumption of 8 coastal power plants was 2.06 million tons, which was at a high level, with a stock of 2.51 million tons, which was at a low level.
On June 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data that in May, 32.629 million tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 0.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8% in the previous month, an increase of 0.6% over the same period in 2019, an average growth of 0.3% in two years and an average daily output of 10.53 million tons; The imported coal is 21.14 million tons, down 4.6% year on year. From January to May 1621 million tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year, 9.8% higher than that in 2019, and average growth of 4.8% in two years; The imported coal is 11.117 million tons, down 25.2% year on year.
SunSirs analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal is still difficult to increase. In terms of downstream power plants, with the increase in temperature, power plants still have the demand for replenishment. However, recently, affected by the policy, the increase of steam coal is relatively low. On the whole, the short-term steam coal price is relatively strong in the later period, and the specific situation is the demand of the downstream market.
