According to the commodity index of SunSirs, the natural rubber commodity index on May 28 was 38.88, down 0.12 points from the previous day, down 61.12% from the highest point of 100.00 points (2011-09-01), and up 42.52% from the lowest point of 27.28 points on April 2, 2020(Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, during the week of May 24-28, 2021, the overall fluctuation range of domestic natural rubber latex market is very small: the mainstream price on May 24 was 13,125 RMB/ ton, and the main price on May 28 was 13,112.5 RMB/ ton. Among them, the highest price of the week was 13,200 RMB/ ton on May 26, and the lowest price was 13,112.5 RMB/ ton on May 28, the maximum amplitude was only 0.66%. According to the analysis, the market around 13000 RMB/ ton in the middle of this month was actively buying, which pushed the natural rubber market into a stable period.
From the perspective of new rubber output, at present, the main natural rubber producing areas in China have normal cutting, and the supply pressure is increasing. Globally, ANRPC's latest report shows that global natural rubber production is expected to increase 22.5% to 903,000 tons in April 2021. Among them, Thailand increased 26.5%, Indonesia increased 2.8%, Vietnam increased 100% and Malaysia increased 9.8%. Global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase 15.1% to 1.129 million tons in April. Among them, China increased 9.2%, India increased 915%, Thailand increased 2.4% and Malaysia increased 15.8%. Among them, the main producer Thailand's export volume of natural rubber in April increased 34% year on year and decreased 20% month on month.
From the perspective of downstream demand and the situation of tire manufacturers, May is the traditional peak of tire supply. Statistics show that the operating rate of manufacturers in this month is lower than that of last month, and the decline is more than expected. According to automobile data, China's automobile production and sales in April were 2.234 million and 2.252 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 9.3% and 10.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and 8.6%. From January to April, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles were 8.586 million and 8.748 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53.4% and 51.8% respectively. The growth rate dropped 28.3% and 23.8% from January to March. Compared with the same period in 2019, the production and sales increased 2.1% and 4.5% respectively, 2.1% and 2.9% higher than that from January to March. Except China, at present, the import volume of US rubber from Vietnam increases, while that from Thailand and Indonesia decreases, because Vietnam has enough manpower to cut rubber. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to expand its market and increase its exports.
In terms of import and export, China: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on May 7, China imported 577,000 tons of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex) in April 2021, an increase of 15.6% year on year. From January to April 2021, China imported 2.367 million tons of natural rubber and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 9.7% compared with 2.158 million tons in the same period of 2020.
In the future, Novel coronavirus pneumonia is a more worrying phenomenon, and the implementation of the policy of fighting against the epidemic is a more worrying phenomenon. The recovery of economic activity is delayed or cancelled due to health considerations, and economic development is bound to be affected. Secondly, the commodity market is very sensitive to the changes of global politics, economy and other forms, and has great uncertainty in the current international situation. From the industrial point of view, natural rubber is now in the normal annual supply period. Although the supply in Southeast Asia will be affected by the epidemic, the overall pressure on the supply side of natural rubber is still increasing, and the global automobile demand is deeply affected by the economy and the epidemic. The purchasing demand of downstream tire enterprises for rubber is declining due to the decline of tire market demand, Although the domestic natural rubber is in the stage of destocking, the overall weak demand leads to the weak follow-up support of natural rubber. Considering that Shanghai rubber is actively buying around 13,000 RMB/ ton, natural rubber is more likely to fluctuate in the range of 1000 RMB/ ton.
