In May, the price of domestic refined oil products rose slightly. The domestic 92# gasoline price reached 7568.8 RMB/ton, with an increase of 0.77%, and the domestic 0# diesel price reached 6078.6 RMB/ton, with an increase of 4.01%, which mainly boosted the demand of the consumer end. In addition, the increase of on-site equipment maintenance in the second quarter and the shortage of supply boosted the price of upstream crude oil. Multiple positive superpositions, domestic oil prices have risen.
Domestic oil product prices continued to rise in May, but the trading atmosphere was general. In the middle of May, with the news that light cycle, mixed aromatics, and other oil blending raw materials decided to levy consumption tax, it immediately triggered a boom in domestic speculation. Coincidentally with the rise in retail prices, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices rose by 200-300 RMB/ton, but due to the rapid rise, the downstream follow-up is insufficient, the price gradually recovered rational in the later stage, the price trend fell accordingly.
In terms of crude oil: the volatile oil market and the rotation of long and short factors exacerbated the shock of the oil market. Positive factors: on the one hand, the market is expected to be affected by the formation of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the oil price will perform more strongly; More importantly, it is expected that the demand for vaccination will increase; In addition, the driving season in the United States will also stimulate and amplify demand. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.72/barrel. The rising price of the crude oil market has formed certain cost support for the domestic oil product market, and the domestic cost has a rising trend.
The supply and demand of refined oil are good: the second quarter is the centralized maintenance period of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit, the operation rate of refinery maintains a low level, and the supply side presents a tight trend. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is appropriate, the travel radius of the public has increased, and there is a certain demand for goods preparation and storage in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics, and transportation industries continued to pick up, and the demand for diesel oil terminals was strongly supported. Positive demand superimposed, domestic oil prices continued to rise.
Shortly, the average start-up load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of main refineries in China is about 75%. In May, the main refineries will resume work and overhaul the refineries, and the supply side may not change much.
Chen Ling, a refined oil analyst at the SunSirs, believes that the implementation of the consumption tax collection project is beneficial to the normalization of the domestic refined oil market to a certain extent. Coupled with the favorable support of the international crude oil price, June will usher in the peak oil consumption season in the traditional sense of the United States. In addition, the epidemic situation has been alleviated to a certain extent, and the international crude oil has certain cost support, However, domestic oil product prices are at a high stage, and downstream users have a certain resistance to high prices, so there is a great pressure to continue to rise sharply. In June, the price may rise slightly.
