1. Price data
As of May 30, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6697.50 RMB/ton, up 0.49% compared with 6665.00 RMB/ton on May 24. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6700 RMB/ton.
As of May 30, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic Di refined straight run naphtha was 6505.00 RMB/ton, up 0.54% compared with 6470.00 RMB/ton on May 24. The actual transaction price of Di refined straight run naphtha was about 6500 RMB/ton.
The Naphtha Commodity Index was 82.66 on May 30, the same as yesterday, down 19.45% from the peak point of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and up 95.69% from the low point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
The price of local refining naphtha rose slightly this week. There was no inventory pressure on the local refining market this week. As the international crude oil rose, the demand for crude oil was strong, and the local refining naphtha market was operating at a high price.
Upstream: the international oil price rose sharply, and the US Iran negotiation process still affected the market sentiment. However, due to the storm in the Gulf of Mexico that may lead to the closure of oil fields, and the disagreement on Iran's lifting sanctions negotiations, the international oil price rose for a time.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of the SunSirs, the price of toluene continued to decline this week. On May 23, the price of toluene was 5926 RMB/ton, and on May 30, it was 5800 RMB/ton, down 126 RMB/ton or 2.13% from last week. This week, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated slightly. On May 23, the price of mixed xylene was 5960 RMB/ton, and on May 30, the price was 5920 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton or 0.67% compared with last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 RMB/ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, in the list of commodity prices in the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), 8 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rose month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.14%), Brent crude oil (4.15%) and liquefied natural gas (0.87%). Six kinds of commodities declined on a month-on-month basis, and the top three products were steam coal (- 4.86%), petroleum coke (- 2.81%), and liquefied gas (- 1.35%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.16%.
3. Future forecast
Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the current market supply is sufficient. At the end of the month, the naphtha market is in a strong wait-and-see mood and mainly needs to be purchased. It is expected that the naphtha market of local refineries will be stable as a whole shortly, and some refineries will fluctuate slightly.
