1. Price data
According to the data of the business club's block list, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products of major domestic refineries in May was 2125.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 2238.67 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 113.67 RMB/ton
or 5.35%.
On May 31, the oil coke commodity index was 179.05, flat with yesterday, down 2.81% from the highest point of 184.23 (2021-05-25) in the cycle, and up 167.68% from the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: The period refers to 2012-09-30 till now)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Product: in May, the local refining petroleum coke first rises and then decreases. The downstream demand of low sulfur coke is poor, and the price continues to be weak. In the first ten days, the profit of aluminum enterprises were good, some refineries were overhauled, the supply and demand was affected, and the price of medium and high sulfur coke continued to rise; at the end of the month, the inspection and repair plants began to work one after another, and the storage of local petroleum coke was high. In addition, at the end of the month, the refinery went out of stock and sold at a lower price, as well as environmental protection and carbon neutral factors, the price fell.
Upstream: the market is expected to be affected by the formation of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the oil price will be stronger; The demand growth expectation brought by vaccination; The US driving season will also boost demand. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract in the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market was US $66.32/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $68.72/barrel.
Downstream: the price of electrolytic aluminum downstream fluctuated at a high level. According to the data of SunSirs, as of May 31, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market was 18790.00 RMB/ton; The price of raw materials has fallen, the cost pressure of carbon enterprises has decreased, and the recent strict environmental supervision may affect the operating rate of enterprises; The price of calcined coke declined; The silicon metal market is affected by the supply and demand factors recently, and the price rises and falls with each other.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, in the list of commodity prices in the 21st week of 2021 (5.24-5.28), 8 kinds of commodities in the energy sector rose month on month, including 1 kind of commodity that rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; The top three commodities were WTI crude oil (5.14%), Brent crude oil (4.15%) and liquefied natural gas (0.87%). Six kinds of commodities declined on a month-on-month basis, and the top three products were steam coal (- 4.86%), petroleum coke (- 2.81%), and liquefied gas (- 1.35%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.16%.
3. Future forecast
According to the forecast of petroleum coke analysts of SunSirs, the market price of local petroleum coke will rise first and then decline in May, the early inspection and repair plants will start one after another, the inventory of local petroleum coke will be high, the refinery will go out of inventory and reduce the price at the end of the month, as well as the influence of environmental protection and carbon neutralization factors, so it is expected that the petroleum coke may go down in June.
