On May 24, international oil prices jumped sharply and rose strongly for two consecutive days. The settlement price of main contracts in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was $66.05/barrel, up to $2.47 or 3.9%. The settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was 68.46 USD / barrel, up to $2.02 or 3.0%. Vaccination continued, which promoted global demand growth; Market optimism has overshadowed potential risk factors for Iran's crude oil production return to international markets.
Against the background of the severe epidemic situation in Asia, all commodities fell sharply. Last Thursday, the oil price once hit a one-month low. At that time, the main focus of the market was on the progress of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. The negative effect of Iran's crude oil supply returning to the international market continued to depress the oil price. In addition, inflation expectations make the market generally worried about the Fed's withdrawal from monetary easing policy, and the bad macro level will bring unprecedented pressure on risk assets, so crude oil can't be spared.
As of the 24th, the international oil price rebounded strongly for two consecutive days. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI rose by 6.64% and Brent crude oil rose by 5.15% in the past two trading days. At present, the market mainly focuses on the demand growth expectation brought by vaccination.
Although the epidemic situation is still severe, the death toll in India has declined in recent days, further enhancing the expectation of the recovery of oil demand. The market generally believes that even if Iran may restart its crude oil export in the future, which will bring some risks to global supply, with the acceleration of the vaccination process, global demand will continue to increase, which will not affect the oil price to maintain an upward trend.
Goldman Sachs expects global crude oil demand to grow by 4.6 million barrels per day by the end of the year, mostly in the next three months. OPEC + is expected to stop production growth for two months in the second half of 2021 to offset Iran's output increase. According to Goldman Sachs, we can understand whether future growth or certainty will be achieved. The risk of increasing fuel supply in the future may be reduced based on OPEC + production control policy.
SunSirs see that the oil market has changed in recent years, and the air factors have been spinning, which has intensified the oil market's shock. Positive factors: on the one hand, the market is expected to be affected by the formation of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the oil price will perform more strongly; More importantly, it is expected that the demand for vaccination will increase; In addition, the driving season in the United States will also stimulate and amplify demand. Bad news still needs to pay attention to the next monetary policy trend of the Federal Reserve, as well as the time node when Iran's crude oil will return to the international market, which will lead to the next change of OPEC + new production control policy.
