1. Price data
As of May 23, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining naphtha was 6662.50 RMB/ton, down 1.08% compared with 6735.00 RMB/ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of refining naphtha was about 6700 RMB/ton.
As of May 23, the average ex-factory price of domestic local straight run naphtha was 6445.00 RMB/ton, down 1.45% compared with 6540.00 RMB/ton on May 17. The actual transaction price of local straight-run naphtha was about 6450 RMB/ton.
The Naphtha Commodity Index was 82.23 on May 23, the same as yesterday, down 19.87% from the peak of 102.62 (2012-09-24) in the cycle, and up 94.67% from the low point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period: 2012-09-01 to present)
2. Analysis of influencing factors
The price of local refining naphtha continued to fall this week. Affected by the policy, the price rose on Monday. The international crude oil fell sharply this week, and the naphtha market fell back.
Upstream: the international oil price has fallen sharply, mainly due to market concerns that the surge in New Asian crown cases will further depress crude oil demand, and the expectation of new progress in releasing supply increase in the US Iraq nuclear agreement; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.
Downstream: according to the monitoring of the SunSirs, the price of toluene rose first and then fell this week, while on May 16, the price of toluene was 5986.2 RMB/ton, and on May 23, it was 5926 RMB/ton, or 0.5%. This week, the price of mixed xylene rose first and then fell. On May 16, the price of mixed xylene was 5990 RMB/ton, and on May 23, the price was 5960 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton or 0.5% from last week. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 6400 RMB/ton. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream market is not good, which hurts the PX market.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, 5 commodities are rising in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 20th week of 2021 (5.17-5.21), of which more than 5% of the commodities are 1, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were coke (5.59%), petroleum coke (3.06%), coking coal (2.92%). A total of 11 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 3 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three declining products were liquefied natural gas (- 7.60%), WTI crude oil (- 5.25%), Brent crude oil (- 5.24%). This week's average rise or fall was - 1.04%.
3. Future forecast
Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the sharp decline of international crude oil has aggravated the wait-and-see mood of the naphtha market, but it just needs support, and it is expected that the naphtha market will rise shortly.
