1. Price trend
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on May 13 was 3910 RMB/ton, up 27.92% compared with that on May 6, 12.25% month on month, and 39.64% compared with the same period last year.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
After May 1, the domestic LNG rose sharply in off-season, up nearly 40% year-on-year, showing a sharp performance. Looking back last week, LNG rose more gently, and most liquid plants were tentative, with a small margin. But entering this week, the daily rise of LNG is 4.2% to 8.7%, up 28% in a few days. Some of them have secondary price adjustment. Recently, the rise is strong and powerful, which can be called a straight-line surge. This round of increase is mainly due to the increase of maintenance by manufacturers, the tightening of supply, the low inventory of enterprises, the increase of vehicle demand after the festival, and the rising price of imported gas. The domestic liquid price is supported by multiple positive factors. At present, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Henan and other places continue to rise, and some liquid plants have risen to more than 4000 RMB, recovering part of the previous decline and moving up the center of gravity.
In late May, the starting price of gas source bidding was 1.68-1.78 RMB/Square Meter, which was 0.1-0.2 RMB/Square Meter higher than that in the first ten days. The cost support was gradually strengthened, which once again boosted the market atmosphere. The manufacturers supported the price rise, the market participants had a positive attitude, and the short-term market was relatively strong. However, the negative factors in the off-season are still in place. The increase in demand is not as fast as the rise in liquid prices. Moreover, the downstream market may have conflicts, or they may choose other resources to divert part of the demand. Therefore, this off-season surge is not easy to last.
May 13, the domestic market price of liquefied natural gas continued to rise, Inner Mongolia 3730-4100 RMB/ton, Shaanxi 3,700-4200 RMB/ton, Shanxi 3,800-4080 RMB/ton, Ningxia 3,700-3950 RMB/ton, Henan 3,850-3900 RMB/ton, Hebei region 3580-3850 RMB/ton, Sichuan region 3650-4100 RMB/ton, all liquid prices increased significantly.
Downstream products up more than down:
Methanol, May 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange methanol futures high consolidation, the last day closed at 2,755 RMB/ton, compared to the last trading day closed up 139 RMB/ton, futures increase 5.31%.The methanol spot market is also rising. The main producing areas in northwest China drive the methanol spot price in other regions to continue to rise. The tight supply and demand of raw material coal pushes the cost of coal-to-methanol to rise. According to the monitoring of the SunSirs, as of May 13, the average price of domestic methanol producers in Shandong was 2680 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 13.80% and a year-on-year increase of 54.91%. Recently, methanol futures are greatly influenced by thermal coal futures. At present, the basic situation of methanol market is good. Methanol analysts of business association predict that the short-term spot market quotation will mainly follow up slowly.
Urea, upstream liquid ammonia market recent high consolidation, cost support is better. Demand side: Agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; The start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, and most of them followed the market. Supply side: at present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 70%, with a decrease, and the daily output is about 150000 tons. Urea plant maintenance, supply side tightening. Printed label: On May 5, the bidding price of mmtc urea in India was announced. The lowest price on the west coast was USD 358.99/t CFR, and the lowest price on the east coast was USD 356.99/t CFR, which was equivalent to the port price of about 2120 yuan / ton. The price of urea factory in Shandong is expected to rise slightly in the future market.
Dichloromethane, on May 13, the reference price of dichloromethane is 3803.33, compared with May 1 (3630.00), up 4.77%, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong region after the festival dropped sharply, the cost of dichloromethane formation drag; However, the maintenance plan of methane chloride in the later stage is supported, which forms a certain support for dichloromethane, and it is expected that dichloromethane will still be dominated by exploration in the later stage.
3. Future forecast
Liquefied natural gas analysts of SunSirs agency believe that: Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been greatly pushed up by multiple positive factors, and the rising momentum is strong. Manufacturers actively support the price, and operators actively enter the market, and the market is relatively strong. It is expected that the price of liquefied natural gas is expected to continue to rise in the short term, but the impact of off-season is still in progress, and the rise may narrow.
