Forecast gas demand fell Thursday morning after a brief spike earlier in the week but a reduction in imports and LNG output kept supply tight and supported prompt prices, while the bullish spot and rising oil prices supported gains on contracts further out.
Within-day and day-ahead contracts posted gains of about 1.50 pence/therm from Wednesday's close, trading at 59.00 p/th and 58.80 p/th, respectively.
Forecast demand Thursday was down almost 10% from Wednesday at 302.3 million cubic meters as temperatures turned milder and exports to the Continent fell, but the system edged on the short-side throughout the morning by a couple of million cubic meters.
"LNG send out has fallen, as Isle of Grain has ramped down in an attempt to conserve stocks," an analyst said. "In addition, Langeled imports have fallen slightly from recent levels, tightening the gas system."
Imports from Norway on the Langeled pipeline fall from full capacity rates of around 70 million cu m/day to around 60 million cu m/d Thursday and Isle of Grain send out fell from around 25 million cu m/d to 14 million cu m/d.
Customer nominations on the UK-Belgium Interconnector pipeline indicated a net export 26.7 million cubic meters, down from the previous day's 32.4 million cu m but well above the month-to-date average of 16 million cu m/day.
"Strength on the spot and tightness on the Continent are driving things further out," one market source said.
Another said: "Summer onwards is being supported by coal, oil and power prices as well as a weaker pound generally supporting the NBP."
April and Q2 contracts had gains of around 1.80 p/th at 59.70 p/th and 59.20 p/th respectively.
Summer 12 saw similar movements, changing hands at 60.00 p/th, up by 1.90 p/th.
Gas for Winter delivery was trading at 73.00 p/th, up by 1.50 p/th and Summer 13 gained 1.35 p/th at 63.75 p/th.
