Price trend
According to data from SunSirs’bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price continued to rise in early and mid April, and the price fell sharply in late April. The price at the beginning of the month was the low monthly price, 7,944 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month was 8,046 RMB/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.28%; the price on April 24 was the monthly high price at 8,619 RMB/ton with a monthly amplitude of 8.49%.
Analysis review
According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of propylene fell sharply in the second half of March and rebounded at the end of the month. At the beginning of April, the market price rose slowly, and the quotation increased by about 50 RMB/ton on average every day. From the 6th, the price sometimes rose and sometimes stabilized. From the 16th, the price rose steadily at the rate of 50 RMB/ton per day. From the 23rd, the price began to stabilize. On the 26th, the price dropped by about 50 RMB/ton. On the 27th and 28th, the price dropped by about 150 RMB/ton per day. On the 29th, the price dropped by 150 RMB/ton to 350 RMB/ton. On the 30th, most of the prices were stable, with the market turnover ranging from 8,000 to 8,600 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price was about 8,000 RMB/ton. On April 20, the external market of propylene in the United States dropped significantly again, which might have a certain impact on the domestic market. Asian propylene prices remained stable on the 29th, with limited impact on the propylene market. Propylene market inventory had no pressure, part of the device was still in repair. The supply of goods in Shandong was a little tight.
Events in the international crude oil market continued, and prices fluctuated. Crude oil prices rose significantly on April 28 and 29, which had a positive impact on the propylene market.
This month, PP declined slightly and then rebounded slightly, with a monthly decline of 3.34% and a monthly amplitude of 4.80%, which had little negative impact on propylene.
Acrylic acid rebounded after falling this month, with a monthly decline of only 1.92% and a monthly amplitude of 8.31%, which had little effect on propylene.
In the first ten days of this month, propylene oxide was stable mainly, and it rose after falling occasionally. In the latter ten days, it rose 3.28% and monthly amplitude was 5.98%, which had a positive effect on propylene.
ECH market in the first ten days of this month was stable, rising rapidly in the middle of the month, and falling back steadily in the later ten days, with a monthly increase of 19.47%, and the monthly amplitude of 30.00%, which has a significant effect on propylene pullup.
The domestic price of n-butanol in the first half of this month was stable, and occasionally declined. In the second half of the month, it rose steadily, reaching 18.18% in the month, and the monthly amplitude was 23.81%, which had a great positive effect on the propylene market.
The trend of 2-EH this month was similar to that of n-butanol. It was also roughly stable in the first half of the month, with occasional declines. In the second half of the month, it rose steadily, with a monthly increase of 13.30% and a monthly amplitude of 17.36%, which also had a certain positive impact on propylene.
IPA rose steadily after falling back in the first ten days of this month, with a monthly rise of 3.35% and a monthly amplitude of 5.30%, which had little positive effect on propylene.
The price of phenol in East China rose by 4.45% this month, which had a slight positive effect on propylene.
The quotation of acetone manufacturers in East China market fell slightly, with a monthly decline of 5.17%, which had a small negative impact on propylene.
Market outlook
The propylene analyst of SunSirs believes that: on the whole, there are not many domestic inventories, some installations are overhauled, the crude oil market has risen significantly, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, the market is more bullish than bearish, and the polypropylene futures are average. It is expected that propylene may start to stop falling after the May Day holiday, and there is a possibility of stopping falling to rise.
