Recently, the price of domestic refined oil products has risen strongly, with a relatively large increase in the middle of April. According to the data of the SunSirs, as of 21st, 92# gasoline is 7414.8 RMB/ton, and the price has risen 6.47% in the middle of April. The price of 0# diesel oil was 5,800 RMB/ton, and the price rose by 4.17% in the middle of April. The international crude oil price was boosted, together with the increase of on-site equipment maintenance and the shortage of supply, the price of refined oil rose strongly.
International crude oil is good: Yemen's Husser armed forces claimed to attack Saudi oil refining facilities, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East became tense again; the International Energy Agency (IEA) took the lead and released its monthly report, which added fuel to the oil market, on the 14th, the IEA sharply raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2021, the view given is that there are signs that the pace of global economic recovery is faster than previously expected, especially the strong demand in the United States and China; the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released US commercial crude oil inventory data, which also boosted the oil market, according to the data, crude oil inventory in the United States dropped by 5.89 million barrels in the week to April 9, far exceeding the expected decrease of 2.7 million barrels, and fell for three consecutive weeks, with a decrease of 3.52 million barrels before. Meanwhile, crude oil inventory on the east coast hit a new low in more than 30 years; in addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also raised its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 by 5.95 million b/d, an increase of 70,000 b/d from the previous month. The increase in demand has provided support for OPEC's increase in production. Even if OPEC + gradually increases production by more than 2 million b/d in the next three months, oil inventories are expected to decline. International crude oil is supported by various favorable conditions. In the middle of April, crude oil rose considerably. As of the 20th, the main contract of the US WTI crude oil futures market settled at $62.67 / BBL, and the main contract of Brent crude oil futures market settled at $66.57 / BBL.
Good news for refined oil supply and demand: Since April, following the maintenance of Kelida atmospheric and vacuum device, the first unit overhaul of HSBC Petrochemical has not been started. In addition, the whole plant of Dagang Petrochemical has stopped for maintenance in the main refinery. Refinery utilization rate presents a downward trend, the supply side presents a tight trend. In terms of gasoline demand, the domestic temperature is suitable, the travel radius of people has increased, and the May Day holiday is approaching, so there is a certain demand for stocking up and stocking up on goods in the market. In terms of diesel oil, the demand for diesel oil in engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation industries continued to pick up, and the demand for diesel oil terminals was strongly supported. Demand positive superposition, domestic oil prices go higher. By the middle of April, the average starting load of atmospheric and vacuum unit of domestic main refineries is about 75%. The resumption of main refineries and maintenance refineries coexist in April-May, and the supply side may not change much.
According to Chen Ling, a refined oil analyst at the SunSirs, at present, the change rate of domestic crude oil is at a positive low level, and the demand for gasoline and diesel oil continues to improve. The market fundamentals have certain support. It is expected that the price of refined oil will still have a small rise range in the later period.
