1. Trend analysis
In April, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall cobalt price continued to fall. As of April 19, the cobalt price was 345000.00 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 2.17% from the 352,666.66 yuan/ton cobalt price at the beginning of the month (April 1).
2. New energy vehicle market
According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in March, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales were completed by 216,000 and 226,000, respectively, an increase of 2.5 times and 2.4 times year-on-year. From January to March, my country's new energy vehicle production and sales were completed by 533,000. And 515,000 vehicles, an increase of 3.2 times and 2.8 times respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased sharply, which is positive for the outlook of the cobalt market.
In terms of power battery output: in March 2021, the output of ternary lithium batteries was 5.8GWh, accounting for 51.6% of total output, an increase of 79.6% year-on-year, and an increase of 13.7% month-on-month; the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 5.4GWh, accounting for 48.3% of total output , A year-on-year increase of 341.3% and a month-on-month increase of 26.1%. From January to March, the cumulative output of ternary lithium battery was 17.8GWh, accounting for 54.3% of the total output, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 211.6%; the cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 15.0GWh, accounting for 45.6% of the total output, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 487.1%. In terms of sales volume, in March 2021, ternary lithium battery sales were 4.3GWh, an increase of 141.4% year-on-year, accounting for 47.9% of total sales; lithium iron phosphate battery sales were 4.6GWh, an increase of 270.3% year-on-year, accounting for 52.0% of total sales. From January to March, the cumulative sales of ternary lithium batteries were 12.7GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 170.1%; the cumulative sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 11.1GWh, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 246.4%. Power battery production and sales have risen sharply, which is positive for the cobalt market. However, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate battery production and sales is significantly higher than the overall growth rate of the industry. The growth rate of ternary lithium batteries has fallen, which is negative for the cobalt market in the future.
3. MB Cobalt Price
According to MB cobalt price statistics, MB cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in April, and the international cobalt market continued to fall, which was negative for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt market was under greater downward pressure.
4. Market summary
SunSirs data analysts believe that the continued rise in the market for new energy vehicles will support the demand for the cobalt market to a certain extent, but the growth rate of ternary batteries has declined, and the demand for cobalt in the market outlook may fall short of expectations. The price of cobalt salt has continued to fall recently, putting pressure on the price of cobalt. Increase; international cobalt prices continue to fall, and the international cobalt market weakens. On the whole, the cobalt market still has rising support, but the demand in the cobalt market may fall short of expectations. The supply and demand in the cobalt market may still remain oversupply. The cobalt price has room to rise but the upward momentum is insufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and stabilize. It will fluctuate and adjust between 320,000-350,000 yuan/ton.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
