Entering the current pricing cycle, the good news of the international crude oil market has been released. In the past week, the oil price has continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. The focus of the market is still on the evolution of the epidemic situation. The side effects of the vaccine lead to the slow down of the vaccination progress, problems at AstraZeneca in the UK and Johnson & Johnson in the US have also cast a shadow over the rapid global economic recovery. Oil prices have also continued to trade in a tight range, with WTI trading below $60. International oil prices were partly higher, with U.S. WTI crude at $63.15 a barrel and Brent crude at $66.58 a barrel. Oil prices surged about 5 per cent after the International Energy Agency raised its crude demand forecast and then US Energy Information Administration inventory data showed US crude inventories fell for a third week in a row, boosting optimism about a recovery in energy demand. According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the crude oil change rate of the three places rose slightly, with the crude oil change rate of - 1.83% as of April 14. At 24:00 on April 15, the price adjustment of refined oil will come to a standstill, and the oil price will not be adjusted for the time being.
A new round of oil product price adjustment or a small rise is expected.
In the later stage, the three major institutions have strongly supported oil prices and are optimistic about economic recovery expectations. The good news on the demand side is indeed to be expected, but this does not mean that there is no uncertainty in the future of the oil market, and the risks on the supply side still exist, at present, OPEC + is still controlling production. In addition, the biggest supply risk factor is still Iran. Iran's US sanctions have affected about 1.5 million barrels per day of production capacity. If the US and Iran return to the "nuclear agreement", these production capacity will also bring variables to the market. Combined with the continuous growth of US shale oil, the increase of supply will still greatly reduce the growth of demand. The possibility of a sharp rise in crude oil price is low, and the probability of range shock is large. A new round of price adjustment of refined oil products will face great uncertainty, and a small rise may cloud the market.
