1. Price movements
According to SunSirs monitoring, thermal coal prices fell this week. At the beginning of the week the average port price of thermal coal remained at 754 RMB/ton, and at the end of the week the average port price of thermal coal remained at 747.5 RMB/ton, the price decreased by 0.86%, and the price increased by 45.15% compared with last year. On April 8, the thermal coal commodity index was 90.51, down 0.27 points compared with yesterday, down 27.59% compared with the highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19) in the cycle, and up 102.48% compared with the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present).
2. Analysis of Influencing Factors
In terms of producing area, the high level of thermal coal pit coal has decreased, due to early mining sales too hot, now the downstream acceptance of general, coal prices began a small correction. And Yulin area coal began to resume work and production, the overall supply is more adequate. In addition, Mengxi began to release new monthly coal management tickets in April, and the overall supply may have improved.
Downstream power plants side: With the temperature rising, the civil electricity consumption has basically ended, and the daily coal consumption at the port has fallen recently, as of April 6, the total stock of the six major coastal power stations was 14.505 million tons, with a daily consumption of 653,000 tons and a usable day of 22.2 days. And the downstream of high - price coal began to conflict, chase high willingness is not strong. In addition, industrial electricity consumption has been on the right track, the subsequent increase in electricity consumption is not large.
The macro: According to the Ministry of Commerce, Last week (Mar 29 solstice April 4) coal prices rose slightly nationwide, among them, the prices of thermal coal, coking coal and No. 2 anthracite coal were 613 RMB, 776 RMB and 940 RMB per ton, up 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% respectively.
According to SunSirs analysts: At the present stage, the port daily consumption is down, the industrial electricity consumption has entered the normal, the electricity demand is difficult to increase, and the civil electricity consumption is basically over. And the thermal coal supply is more abundant than before. In general, thermal coal prices or maintain weak market operation, specifically to see the downstream market demand.
