1.Price trend
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs: On April 7, the average price of domestic LNG was 3426.67 RMB / ton, up 0.78% from the previous day, down 6.12% from the beginning of the month, and up 8.9% from the same period last year.
2.Analysis of influencing factors
On April 7, the liquid price stopped falling and turned to rising, with an increase of 0.78%. Bid farewell to the soaring market in March, Enter April, Domestic liquefied natural gas market goes down all the way, Before and after the holiday, there were different degrees of decline, Due to the restriction of dangerous chemical vehicles on expressways, Poor delivery in many places, pressure on prices fell, The first working day after the festival fell by about 5%. On April 7, the price of liquid stopped falling turn to rising. Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and other places had a strong atmosphere of price support. In addition, some liquid factory maintenance has good, which supported the upward price of liquid. The range was around 50-100 RMB / ton, with little increase. However, some regions continue to decline. As a whole, the market is mixed with ups and downs, with more ups and less downs. Most of them adjust in a narrow range according to their own shipment situation. With the end of the heating period in northern China, the demand for heating is gradually decreasing, and the market is gradually entering the off-season, In addition, the inlet air continuously gives up profits has impacted the domestic market. The pressure of liquid factory's delivery is large, and the inventory is on the high side, Under the support of the short-term good, the liquid price is expected to rise slightly, and the future market may continue to be weak.
On April 7, the domestic LNG stopped falling and turn to rising, and some regions showed up and down. It is 3300-3600 RMB / ton in Inner Mongolia, 3460-3380 RMB / ton in Shaanxi, 3350-3600 RMB / ton in Shanxi, 3570-3680 RMB / ton in Ningxia, 3520-3700 RMB / ton in Henan and 3180-3450 RMB / ton in Hebei.
Downstream products rose and fell:
Methanol, On April 7, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was raised. On April 7, the reference price of methanol was 2395.00, up 0.74% compared with April 1 (2377.50). Methanol market negotiation price in southern Shandong increased by 20 RMB / ton to 2300-2330 RMB / ton, with cash withdrawal from nearby factories. The turnover of methanol market in central Shandong was stable at 2310-2320 RMB / ton, which was sent to cash. Shandong methanol North Shandong market is stable at 2300-2320 RMB / ton to cash exchange. The methanol analyst of SunSirs agency expects that, In the short term, the domestic methanol market is dominated by consolidation.
Liquid ammonia, On April 7, the reference price of liquid ammonia was 3936.67, the same as that on April 1. At present, the shortage of liquid ammonia supply may be alleviated in the near future, after the Qingming Festival, the news of the start of the factory was released, there are large plants in Henan province that may be put into production again after the festival, the Chongqing plant will be put into production again in mid April, In addition, the northeast region also increased its cargo delivery, It is expected that the supply will increase slowly in the near future, so the price of liquid ammonia may reach the top at present.
Urea, On April 7, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable, with a reference price of 2110.00, compared with April 1 (2170.00), it decreased by 2.76%. Demand side: Agricultural demand is mainly sporadic procurement; the start-up load of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet plants increased slightly, most of them fluctuate along with market changes. Supply side: At present, the operating rate of urea enterprises is about 80%, with a slight increase, and the daily output is about 160000 tons. the start-up load of urea enterprises is increased and the supply side is sufficient.
Dichloromethane, On April 7, the reference price of dichloromethane was 3783.33, up 1.07% compared with that on April 1 (3743.33), at present, the domestic dichloromethane market is seeking a new balance, On the one hand, the downstream has some resistance to the high price in the early stage，on the other hand, the cost side and the demand side have different degrees of support for dichloromethane，on the whole, the market price in the later stage will continue to rise until a balance is formed.
3. Future forecast
According to the LNG analysts of SunSirs News Agency: At present, the LNG market is entering a slack season, market trading turned light and prices bottomed out, for the sake of cost consideration and the advantages of some liquid plant maintenance, In some areas, liquid prices stopped falling and rose, but the range was not large, liquid prices are expected to rise slightly under the support of short-term good, the future market may continuous weak operation.
