Price trend
According to data from SunSirs’bulk list, aniline stopped rising this week and turned down. On March 28, the price in Shandong was 13,900-14,000 RMB/ton, the price of aniline in Nanjing was 14,000 RMB/ton, and on April 4, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13,000-13,200 RMB/ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 13,000-13,500 RMB/ton, the average price dropped by 7.14% from last week, up by 64.56% from the beginning of the year, and up by 143.75% from the same period last year.
Analysis review
In terms of cost, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of styrene this week, with prices rising. During the week, Malaysian Petroleum Corporation and Japan's ENEOS units were shut down, and Asian pure benzene prices rose, supporting the domestic pure benzene market. East China port inventory continued to decline this week, and it was still in the depot channel. This week, the listing price of Sinopec's pure benzene increased by 150 RMB/ton to 6,500 RMB/ton, and the listing price of some refineries in North China increased by 300 RMB/ton to 6,450 RMB/ton. On Sunday (April 4), the price of pure benzene was 6,450-6,650 RMB/ton (average price of 6,520 RMB/ton), and the average price rose by 240 RMB/ton, or 3.82%, from last week; it was up by 169.42% from the same period last year.
Nitric acid prices stabilized during the week. On Friday (April 2), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2,050 RMB/ton, which was the same as the price at the beginning of the month and rose 28.12% from the same period last year. The nitric acid market was acceptable, and individual manufacturers had no inventory pressure.
The price of aniline was high and the price of downstream polymerized MDI was down, which led to the reduction of downstream profit margins. There was strong resistance to high-priced aniline, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods was not high. In addition, Jinling Dongying’s 200,000-ton/year aniline plant restarted on April 3, and Huatai’s 100,000-ton/year aniline plant was about to restart. Supply was expected to increase. The industry's attitude towards the market outlook was relatively bearish, and the price of aniline was weakly falling.
Market outlook
In terms of cost, the number of pure benzene arriving at the port in the later period is still limited, the port is still in the destocking channel, the company's inventory is not high, and there is no shipping pressure temporarily. It is expected that pure benzene will continue to fluctuate with crude oil and styrene prices in the short term. With the entry of new styrene plants, there is a certain degree of support for the demand for pure benzene. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of pure benzene installations at home and abroad, and the influence of trends in crude oil and foreign markets on the price of pure benzene.
The market supply is expected to increase, and it is expected that aniline may still fall. Pay attention to the changes in market supply after the restart of Jinling Dongying and Dongying Huatai's restart plan. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of the dynamics of aniline equipment on the price of aniline.
