The US corn acreage for the 2021-22 marketing year (September-August) has been estimated at 91.1 million acres, while soybean acreage in the country for 2021-22 is seen at 87.6 million acres, the US Department of Agriculture said March 31 in its Prospective Plantings report.
Acreage estimates for both corn and soybean are lower than the USDA's February Outlook Forum forecast. The USDA in its Outlook Forum expected area under corn in 2021-22 to be at 92 million acres, while soybean acres were seen at 90 million acres.
The average analyst estimate was also higher -- at 93.2 million acres for corn and 89.99 million acres for soybean. S&P Global Platts Analytics estimated acreage under US corn in 2021-22 to be at 93 million acres and soybean acreage to be at 90 million acres.
The US corn acreage estimate for 2021-22 is, however, slightly higher than 2020-21 acreage, while soybean acreage is up 5% from last year.
The report has surprised the markets with lower estimates than the February Outlook Forum's as analysts expected the acreage to rise on the back of sustained higher prices of both corn and soybean and stronger insurance guarantees.
US corn and soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade gained after the release of the report.
The most-active, May futures contract of corn on the CBOT gained nearly 31 cents/bushel after the report and was trading at $5.64/bu at 0430 GMT. The soybean May contract gained 65 cents/bu after the report and was trading at $14.37/bu.
According to the USDA, the area under corn in 2021-22 is expected to be up or unchanged in 24 of the 48 estimating states. In the largest corn-producing states of Iowa and Illinois, corn acreage is 2021 is seen falling on the year by 3% and 4% to 13.2 million acres and 10.9 million acres, respectively.
For soybeans, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating states. Soybean acres are projected to be the largest in Illinois with 10.7 million acres, up 4% from 2020, followed by Iowa with 9.8 million acres, up 4.2% on the year, and Minnesota with 7.8 million acres, up 5.4% year on year.
Though acreage estimates under corn and soybean remained below analyst's expectations, acreage estimate under wheat exceeded it.
Wheat estimates
The USDA has estimated wheat planted area for 2021-22 to be at 46.4 million acres, up 5% from 2020-21.
The acreage estimate, despite being the fourth lowest of all wheat planted area since 1919, is above trade expectations and USDA's previous estimate in February.
Average trade expectation for US wheat in 2021-22 is at 44.97 million acres, while USDA estimated it to be at 45 million acres in February.
In the top producing states of Kansas and Texas wheat acreage in 2021-22 is seen rising by 11% and 12% to 7.3 million acres, and 5.5 million acres, respectively.
The most-active wheat contract on the CBOT initially rose after the report to reach intra-day high of $6.31/bu. The contract later shed some gains and was seen trading at $6.23/bu at 0420 GMT.
