1. Trend analysis
In March, the domestic cobalt market fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall cobalt price dropped sharply. As of March 30, the cobalt price was 355,333.34 yuan/ton, a sharp drop from the 398,333.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (March 1), a decrease of 10.79%; the cobalt price rose slightly in March, but afterwards the cobalt price was all There has been a greater decline. The reason is that the sharp drop in international cobalt prices is definitely an important factor in the weakness of the domestic cobalt market.
2. Cobalt price in LME market
The LME cobalt price in March rose briefly at the beginning of the month. After that, the cobalt price continued to decline steadily. The cobalt price plunged at the end of March. The international cobalt price plummeted, which dragged down the domestic cobalt market. The domestic cobalt market was weak and the cobalt price rose weakly.
3. MB Cobalt Price
The MB cobalt price rose slightly in early March, which supported the domestic cobalt market to a certain extent, but then the cobalt price weakened sharply. The cobalt price showed a sharp decline from March 11, and the MB cobalt price fell more than that at the beginning of the month on March 29. At US$2/lb, the international cobalt price plummeted, and the domestic cobalt market lost support.
4. Market analysis
SunSirs data analysts believe that the weakening of the international cobalt market and the sharp drop in international cobalt prices have dragged down the recovery of the domestic cobalt market, but the future trend of the cobalt market still depends on the supply and demand relationship in the market outlook. On the supply side, Congo’s cobalt production has increased year-on-year, and domestic cobalt imports have increased significantly, and the cobalt market has ample supply; on the demand side, both the mobile phone market and the new energy vehicle market have a good development trend. The overall demand is bullish, but the global "core shortage" The crisis" has caused the installed capacity of new energy vehicles to fall far short of expectations. As the tight production capacity of chip manufacturers continues to ferment, industries such as mobile phones, surveillance, PC, home appliances and game consoles, and almost all electronic products that use chips worldwide, have At least they were affected by the shortage of chips, and the downstream industry chain was affected by the crisis of core shortage. The output fell short of expectations and declined to a certain extent. Demand in the cobalt market declined. In summary, the oversupply of the global cobalt market is the main reason for the recent sharp drop in the cobalt market, and it is also the main factor leading to the slow recovery of the domestic cobalt market. The international cobalt market has dragged down the recovery of the domestic cobalt market. The outlook for the cobalt market is difficult to change. It is expected that the short-term weakness of the cobalt market will temporarily stabilize, but in the long run, the cobalt market will have a strong upward momentum, and the long-term cobalt market will rise slightly.
Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).
