Price trend
According to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the chloroform market in Shandong has risen sharply since February. As of March 10, the average price of chloroform in Shandong was around 3,646.67 RMB/ton, an increase of 51.94% from 2,400 RMB/ton in early February.
Analysis review
First of all, the spot supply of chloroform in Shandong is tight due to the impact of the decline in the enterprise load and the low inventory. On the one hand, some companies and other equipment were overhauled in February, the overall output of chloroform was reduced, and the company’s shipments were smooth, and there was no inventory pressure; on the other hand, some companies had a maintenance plan in March. According to SunSirs, Jinling planned to shut down on March 12. The maintenance is about 20 days. It is expected that the supply will continue to be tight in the later period, and the market is bullish. After the Spring Festival, the ex-factory price of chloroform was frequently increased. On March 10, the ex-factory price of chloroform was increased by 200-300 RMB/ton within a day, and the mainstream ex-factory price of chloroform bulk water including tax was around 3,730-3,800 RMB/ton. Market offers rose further, and individual traders’packaged and tax-included offers reached around 4,500 RMB/ton.
Secondly, the price of raw materials is high, and there is strong support from the cost side. The price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong has risen by more than 1,000 RMB/ton since the end of February. The cost support is strong. According to SunSirs, as of March 8th, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong reached around 1,800 RMB/ton; the price of raw methanol is at a high level and is on an upward path. Since February, the price has continued to rise. According to SunSirs’monitoring, the price of methanol was 2,462 RMB/ton as of March 10, an overall increase of 7.51% from 2,290 RMB/ton in early February.
Finally, the downstream refrigerant peak season is gradually coming, refrigerant orders are increasing, even some models are filled with orders, operating rates increase, demand side support is strengthened, and chloroform prices rise.
Market outlook
Methane Chloride Data Analyst believes that the current inventory pressure of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is not great, coupled with the rising cost of raw materials, the demand side is in the downstream peak season. It is expected that the price of chloroform still has room to rise in the later period.
