Price trend
According to data from SunSirs’bulk list, the price of aniline rose again this week. On February 28, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10,700-10,800 RMB/ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 10,700 RMB/ton. On March 7, the price of aniline in Shandong was 11,200-11,500 RMB/ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11,400-11,500 RMB/ton, the average price rose 4.59% from last week, rose 44.3% from the beginning of the year, and rose 68.47% from the same period last year.
Analysis review
In terms of costs, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly due to positive external news in the early stage. However, the pure benzene rose too fast in the early period, and the downstream sentiment to resist the high price of pure benzene was strong. In the early period of this week, crude oil fell, the external disk fell sharply, and the downstream styrene fluctuated and fell. However, the willingness of the industry to sell goods at low prices was low, and the listing price of Sinopec's pure benzene was 6,750 RMB/ton, the price was stable, and the market decline was limited. On Sunday (March 7), the price of pure benzene was 6,400-6,850 RMB/ton (average price of 6,670 RMB/ton), and the average price was 20 RMB/ton lower than last week, or down 0.3%; it was up 29.51% from the same period last year.
The price of nitric acid dropped slightly this week from last week. On Friday (March 5), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1,983.33 RMB/ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the price dropped by 16.67 RMB/ton, or 0.83%; it was up by 32.22% compared with the same period last year.
During the week, Jiangsu Fuqiang's aniline plant was overhauled, and part of Jinling's plant was operating under reduced load. The market supply was expected to decrease. Inventories of aniline companies were low and prices rose.
Market outlook
In terms of cost, internationally, with the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and America, the tight supply of styrene eased, and the price of pure benzene in Europe and America stopped falling. Domestically, the replenishment of pure benzene in the main port in March-April is limited, and the downstream profitability of pure benzene is relatively high. The demand for pure benzene is good, and the speed of destocking is expected to increase. At present, the pure benzene market is greatly affected by styrene and crude oil. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will still fluctuate mainly within the range in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the future situation, the development of pure benzene installations at home and abroad, and the impact of trends in crude oil and foreign markets on the price of pure benzene.
Cost support is good; Shandong's main aniline plant is expected to be overhauled, and the supply is expected to decrease; downstream polymer MDI and rubber additives are in strong demand, the price is high, the profit margin is good, and the demand for aniline is good. The market is bullish on the short-term aniline market. If the downstream continues to actively follow up, aniline may continue to rise. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand, and the operation and maintenance of aniline plants.
