International crude oil prices continue to hit new highs in the year. The cost side drives domestic asphalt prices up. Coupled with the decline of asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries, the supply of asphalt market is reduced, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation and hoarding in the terminal market is rising. After the Spring Festival, the domestic asphalt market prices go up all the way. According to the price monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of asphalt on February 25 was 3,050 RMB/ ton, up 17.16% compared with that before the Spring Festival.
Recently, the price of international crude oil market continued to hit a high point in the year. As of press release, WTI oil price was at $62.5 / barrel. According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC+ is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and the speed of resuming production was slow. Accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil.
In terms of asphalt supply, affected by low temperature, Spring Festival holidays and other factors, the terminal asphalt demand has entered the off-season, and the asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries will fall to a low level in phases. The data shows that the comprehensive asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries has decreased from about 57% in January to about 44% in late February, and the asphalt production has declined for three consecutive months. China's asphalt production was 2.5598 million tons in January, and it is expected to drop to 2.1089 million tons in February. It is expected that the supply will decrease, and the enthusiasm of middlemen and end customers will increase, which will boost the domestic asphalt price.
In terms of asphalt demand, northeast, North China, East China and other regions are affected by low temperature weather, road construction projects are stagnant, and asphalt demand is general. In southwest, South China and other regions, the asphalt terminal market still needs support. On the whole, the domestic demand for asphalt for terminal road construction dropped to a low level, and the rising price of asphalt pushed up the demand for asphalt storage.
SunSirs analysts believe that after the recent sharp rise in international crude oil prices, coupled with the expectations of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other institutions to increase crude oil prices, domestic asphalt prices are bullish. However, it is still the off-season demand for asphalt, and the actual demand for domestic asphalt terminal roads is at a low level. It is expected that China domestic asphalt prices will continue to rise, but the increase may be convergent.
