Rystad estimates that about 72 % of the state’s remaining recoverable oil resources could stay in the ground, although the effect on production will be felt only after 2030. Alaska’s oil days were already considered numbered by the energy industry, but the new administration’s push for energy transition could hasten the process.
Rystad estimates Alaska’s remaining recoverable oil reserves to be 23.3 billion barrels of oil and condensates.
About 16.8 billion barrels of this may never see the light of day if the temporary bans on oil activity in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) and on new lease sales on state-wide federal lands and waters are here to stay.
It’s safe to say that the previous administration’s rushed ANWR lease sale did not garner much interest, but a halt to oil & gas activities would mean that any potential discoveries are taken off the map.
Based on Rystad’s estimates, a permanent ban on new leases would remove 1.35 billion barrels of oil resources that could be developed from the currently unawarded or open acreage in ANWR.
An end to new offshore leases in Alaska could result in the state losing out on up to 10 billion barrels of oil.
The state could also miss out on roughly 4.5 billion barrels of oil resources through unawarded onshore acreage in the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska.
Rystad pointed out that the oil & gas industry provided about 80% of Alaska’s state revenues in 2019 and removing oil volumes on this scale would clearly have an immense impact on the state’s finances.
