Price trend
According to data from SunSirs’bulk list, after the Spring Festival, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market started to skyrocket, and prices continued to rise. The price on February 14 was 7,060 RMB/ton, the price on February 17 was 7,196 RMB/ton, and the price on February 20 was 7,761 RMB/ton, a seven-day increase of 9.94% and a four-day increase of 7.85%.
Analysis review
According to the price chart of SunSirs, the price of propylene fell all the way at the end of January. After a slight rebound at the end of January, the price of propylene began to stabilize. On February 8, the price of propylene generally fell by 50 RMB/ton. After entering the Spring Festival holiday, the price of propylene was mostly stable during the first half of the holiday, and the price of propylene rose steadily in the second half (from February 15). February 18th was the first day of work, and until the 20th, the price increased by about 200 RMB/ton per day. After the holiday, the price had risen by more than 600 RMB/ton. On the 20th, the current market transaction reached 7,700~7,950 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price rose to about 7,700 RMB/ton. Now manufacturers have less inventory, and shipments are relatively hot. Affected by extreme weather in the United States, the installations are frequently overhauled, and the restart time is uncertain. The production of propylene has dropped sharply, and the price has soared; Japan is affected by the earthquake and the installations are also affected, and the production of propylene has been reduced.
Crude oil prices declined slightly on February 19, but there is still a certain cost support capacity.
Recently, the price of PP has also risen continuously, with a four-day increase of 7.50%. The futures market is also ideal, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.
The price of acrylic acid has also risen recently, with a three-day increase of 2.87%, which has a slightly positive effect on propylene.
The propylene oxide market has risen steadily recently, with a four-day increase of 3.77%, which has a slightly positive impact on propylene.
The epichlorohydrin market has risen slightly recently, with a four-day increase of 1.53%, which has little effect on propylene.
Recently, the domestic price of n-butanol has risen rapidly, with a four-day increase of 26.16%, which has a clear positive effect on the propylene market.
Recently, the trend of 2-EH is similar to that of n-butanol, and it has also risen sharply, with a four-day increase of 36.36%, which also has a significant positive impact on propylene.
The price of isopropanol has risen slightly recently, rising to 3.28% in the four days, which has a slight positive impact on propylene.
East China phenol market has also risen recently, with a four-day increase of 9.87%, which has a certain positive impact on propylene.
In the East China acetone market, manufacturers' quotations have been temporarily stable recently, and the market prices have risen slightly, which has little impact on propylene.
Market outlook
The propylene analyst of SunSirs believes that: on the whole, the current international production has dropped significantly, and the short-term device recovery capacity is limited, the domestic inventory is small, the crude oil price market is still supportive, the downstream operating rate is ideal, the demand is strong, and the price is rising significantly Therefore, it is expected that the propylene market outlook may rise again after a short period of consolidation at a high level in the near future.
