During the Spring Festival holiday, LME London Metal Exchange metal futures led by copper almost went red, mainly due to the expected increase in Chinese demand and the expected global economic recovery. Copper hit the highest level since 2012, and returned after the holiday as domestic investors ended the holiday The market has brought another wave of gains. Under the leadership of copper, the metal market has become popular across the board, and many commodities have reached new highs. As of about 14:15 pm on February 19, 2021, the main Shanghai tin contract was quoted at 181,660 yuan/ton, a single-day increase of 6%, again setting a new high since the contract was listed.
In addition to the macro-positive impact of this round of gains, transportation in some areas is affected by the situation in Myanmar. Although the port is not affected by the political turmoil, the impact on transportation cannot be measured at present. The tight supply of domestic mines has further intensified.
More than 90% of China's tin mines are imported from Myanmar. In 2020, affected by the reduction of local tin mines in Myanmar, China's import data is significantly lower than in previous years. In December last year, China imported about 16,000 tons of tin concentrate, a decrease of 7.82% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 19.12%, but December is already the month of 2020 with more tin concentrate imports. In 2020, China imported 158,000 tons of tin concentrate, a year-on-year drop of 11.27%.
In terms of domestic mine supply, Yinman Mining, which resumed production around August 2020, is currently suspending production for inspection. It is not clear when it will resume work. Based on the domestic and international situation, the tight domestic mine supply situation cannot be eased in a short time.
In the spot market, as futures prices continue to rise, the domestic spot market prices have also risen strongly, but the market is still deserted after the holiday. At present, the circulation of the spot market is relatively small. Although the performance of premiums and discounts is strong, there is a lack of transactions. In the state of priceless market.
In terms of market outlook, SunSirs believes that as the smelter starts gradually after the holiday and is restricted by the import of tin concentrate, the tight supply at the mine will continue for some time in the future. At present, the spot price is high, and most of the market is mainly waiting and watching. It is expected that the post-holiday spot market will continue to have prices and no market, and Shanghai and tin may continue to set new historical highs in the future.
