Price trend
According to the data from SunSirs’bulk list, the average ex-factory price of powdered ammonium biphosphate was 2,201.33 RMB/ton on February 18, and the average ex-factory price of powdered ammonium biphosphate was 2,134.67 RMB/ton on February 9, up 3.12% after the holiday. The month-on-month increase was 5.6% and the year-on-year increase was 13.86%.
According to the data from SunSirs’bulk list, the average ex-factory price of 64% DAP was 2,490 RMB/ton on February 18, and the average ex-factory price of 64% DAP was 2,490 RMB/ton on February 9. The price is temporarily stable after the holiday. The month-on-month increase was 2.05% and the year-on-year increase was 13.18%.
Analysis review
After the Spring Festival, the price of ammonium biphosphate increased by 3.12%. At present, foreign demand for ammonium biphosphate has increased and prices have risen, which has driven the domestic market. At the same time, raw material prices have risen, cost support has been strong, fundamentals are good, and the sales pressures of corporate are not great. The industry is generally optimistic about the market outlook, and low-end prices have begun to move closer to high-end prices. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium biphosphate in Anhui is 2,105-2205 RMB/ton. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium biphosphate in Hubei area is 2,150-2,250 RMB/ton. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium biphosphate in Henan is around 2,200-2,250 RMB/ton. The ex-factory price of 55% powdered ammonium biphosphate in Sichuan is about 2,100-2,250 RMB/ton.
After the Spring Festival, the price of DAP was temporarily stable, and there was no obvious fluctuation compared with before the holiday. The price remained high, mainly for export, and the market was running steadily. In Hubei, many companies stop quoting of 64% DAP, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 64% DAP in Gansu is 2,650 RMB/ton. The mainstream ex-factory price of 64% DAP in Yunnan area is 2,930-3,050 RMB/ton. The mainstream ex-factory price of 64% DAP in Guizhou area is 2,950-3,000 RMB/ton, and the price of 64% DAP in Heilongjiang area rises to about 3,050 RMB/ton.
In terms of raw materials, on February 18, the domestic sulphur market rose sharply, solid sulphur in regional refineries rose by about 30-80 RMB/ton, liquid sulphur prices in East China rose by 50 RMB/ton, and sulfur prices in other regions temporarily stabilized. Sulfur stocks in refineries in various regions are low, the sulfur market is operating strongly, and holders have no intention of low-price shipments. The current phosphate fertilizer export market continues to improve. With the approach of domestic spring farming fertilizer, the downstream market is positive for sulfur prices. In the future, the sulphur market will run strongly, and pay attention to downstream follow-up.
Market outlook
The ammonium phosphate analyst of SunSirs believes that after the holiday, the ammonium phosphate market is improving, the price of ammonium biphosphate has risen, and the price of DAP remains high. At present, foreign demand for ammonium biphosphate has increased and prices have risen, which has driven the domestic market. At the same time, the price of raw materials has risen, the cost support has been strong, the fundamentals are good, and the sales pressure of enterprises is not large. The market outlook is generally optimistic, and further price increases are expected. There are too many companies with DAP suspension of reporting, and prices remain high. In the short term, the market will continue to run steadily. However, under the support of tight cargo, it is expected that prices will easily rise and hardly fall in the future.
