According to the monitoring of SunSirs, on February 7, the coking coal market in North China was about 1,581.67 RMB/ ton, up 6.99% over the same period last year. Coking coal prices are now mainly stable.
On February 7, the coking coal commodity index was 116.73, unchanged from the previous day, down 3.95% from the highest point 121.53 in the cycle (March 12, 2019), and up 159.92% from the lowest point 44.91 on January 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to from September 1, 2012 to now)
According to SunSirs, on the supply side, large state-owned enterprises have normal production during the Spring Festival, and the supply side is guaranteed. There are many manufacturers in accordance with the implementation of early orders, the overall price presents a stable situation.
Demand: in the downstream, the domestic automobile transportation market has returned to normal, and the freight has returned to reasonable. The sales and shipment of coking enterprises are good, and the inventory of coking enterprises remains low at present. The new production capacity of coking enterprises is gradually released. According to the current coke inventory situation of steel plants, some steel plants have not reached the reasonable inventory before the festival, and there are still plans to replenish the warehouse in the near future. Some of the steel plants that have been put into maintenance are scheduled to resume production about one year later. The overall supply of coke is still tight, the price of coke has reached a higher level, the profit of coking enterprises is higher, and the profit in some areas has reached 1000 RMB/ ton, which is the highest profit in the past decade. The profit of steel mills is tightening, which is more resistant to high prices. It is expected that the possibility of rising again before the festival is low.
According to SunSirs coking coal analysts, the trend of downstream coke is still good at present, with high start-up and profit margin. Coking coal shipment is relatively smooth, and there is no inventory pressure for the time being. Generally speaking, there is still room for coke demand for coking coal in the short term. However, due to the delivery approaching the Spring Festival or slowing down compared with before, it is expected that coking coal will mainly run smoothly during the Spring Festival, depending on the downstream market demand.
